March Madness really begins with the First Four, which is where we tip off with UMBC vs. Howard on Tuesday night.
UMBC comes in as a 1.5-point favorite at Fanatics Sportsbook, as the two teams look to advance to the first round of the March Madness tournament, where the winner will face the No. 1-seeded Michigan.
That will be a tough undertaking for any No. 16 seed and both of these teams are generally thought of similarly in the eyes of data and analytics platforms KenPom and Bart Torvik.
Torvik rates UMBC at No. 184 overall, while Howard comes in at 204, and KenPom is nearly identical (UMBC: 185; Howard: 207).
Games are played on the hardwood, though, not on efficiency sheets.
UMBC vs. Howard prediction
UMBC is the more well-rounded of the two teams, coming in at No. 183 in offensive efficiency and No. 192 in defensive efficiency via KenPom.
Meanwhile, Howard plays much better on the defensive side of the court, ranking No. 117 on defense and among the worst in the country at offense, coming in at No. 283.
So, can Howard consistently make shots to score a victory?
They’ve played better on offense of late, having eight straight games and averaging 76.5 points per game in that span, a slight uptick from the 75 points per game they averaged previously.
They’re led by Mid-Eastern Atlantic Conference Player of the Year Bryce Harris, who averaged 17.4 points per game during the season.
Guard Cedric Taylor III has also played well in recent games, scoring 21 points and 24 points in two games, respectively, during this eight-game stretch.
Betting on College Basketball?
This game will be decided by how Howard’s guards play, as UMBC is led by guards Jah’Likai King, Ace Valentine, and DJ Armstrong Jr. (son of former NBA player Darrell Armstrong).
It’s hard to deny the guard play of the Retrievers.
My model makes UMBC 1.5-point favorites, so the spread is dead-on, but the +110 price at DraftKings for the favorite is worth targeting.
PREDICTION: UMBC -1.5 (+110, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: nypost.com
