West Bengal Opinion Poll: Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee is the most preferred chief ministerial candidate, even after being in power for consecutive 15 years, according to a latest opinion poll.
According to the latest VoteVibe survey, 46.4% of respondents backed Banerjee as their choice for chief minister, significantly ahead of BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari, who secured 34.9% support. Other contenders, including Congress’s Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury and CPM’s Mohammed Salim, lag far behind.
Mamata’s Lead Anchors TMC’s Prospects
The strong personal preference for Banerjee appears to be a key factor driving the Trinamool Congress’s projected return to power.
The survey estimates that the TMC could win between 174 and 184 seats in the 294-member Assembly, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 148. If realised, this would mark a fourth consecutive term for Banerjee, though with a slightly reduced seat share compared to previous elections.
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BJP Gains Ground but Trails in Leadership
While the BJP is expected to improve its tally, with projections ranging between 108 and 118 seats, the gap in chief ministerial preference highlights a continued leadership advantage for the TMC.
The poll suggests that although the BJP may consolidate its position as the principal opposition, it still faces a challenge in matching Banerjee’s personal connect with voters.
Congress and Left parties, meanwhile, are projected to remain marginal, with a combined tally of just 0 to 4 seats.
Shift From Previous Projections
Compared to an earlier survey released on March 23, which estimated higher numbers for the TMC, the latest poll indicates a marginal dip in its seat share while showing a stronger performance by the BJP.
However, Banerjee’s sustained popularity appears to be cushioning the ruling party’s prospects amid tighter competition.
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Regional Dynamics Could Be Crucial
The electoral contest is expected to vary across regions. The BJP appears to be gaining traction in Midnapore, while the TMC continues to hold an advantage in the Presidency and Malda belts.
These regional trends could play a decisive role in shaping the final outcome.
Voter Concerns and Sentiment
Beyond leadership, the survey highlights unemployment and development as the most pressing concerns for voters, cited by 35.1% of respondents.
Law and order, women’s safety, electoral roll issues, and inflation also feature prominently.
Public opinion on government schemes remains divided, with 53.6% of respondents saying that youth-focused initiatives have not adequately addressed unemployment.
Voting preferences also show distinct social patterns, with Muslim voters largely backing the TMC, while the BJP draws stronger support from SC-ST communities and upper-caste Hindu voters.
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