What One Nation’s rise means for Labor in Queensland

One Nation’s rise has decimated support on the conservative side of politics, triggering an existential reckoning for the Coalition.

Federally, the party has splintered, reformed and changed leaders, while state conservative oppositions in Victoria and South Australia have bled votes to Pauline Hanson’s party.

But the numbers in Queensland, so far, tell a different story.

The latest Resolve Strategic poll for this masthead revealed the first glimpse of a Queensland state-based surge for One Nation – and it appears to have eroded votes from Labor, rather than the LNP.

The LNP government, led by David Crisafulli, maintained primary support of 34 per cent, while Steven Miles’ Labor opposition slumped four percentage points to 26, and One Nation jumped from 9 to 16 per cent.

Resolve director Jim Reed said this followed a similar national and interstate One Nation trend – as well as the rise in Britain of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK – in which the opposition party is typically the first to suffer losses to far-right populists.

It then starts to eat away at the party in government, according to Reed’s analysis.

One Nation’s rise is less likely to be a uniquely Labor problem in Queensland and more a result of fevered dissatisfaction with both major parties, according to political experts and some pollsters.

But it has emerged as a clear threat to Labor, which lost a large swathe of regional seats in the 2024 state election when it was swept from office.

Labor is unlikely to be competitive at the 2028 election without a significant jump in support outside Brisbane – in areas prime for One Nation – making its bid to return to government more difficult.

Reed said Labor’s popularity at a state level in Queensland was stronger than other oppositions across the country, where support has crumbled to historic lows.

“But the era of Queensland Labor counting on 30-plus per cent of votes forever more, regardless of what they do and who’s in charge, that’s over,” he said.

“They can easily slip down into the low 20s, and maybe beyond.”

Fellow pollster Tony Barry, a director at political research group Redbridge, said the most common demographic to support One Nation was men aged 45-60 who worked in heavy manufacturing, had large mortgages, and were suffering from “enormous economic anxiety”.

“Guys with physical jobs, which obviously in Central Queensland is a very significant cohort,” he told this masthead.

In a recent Redbridge poll to gauge views on the current political system, 15 per cent of respondents chose the option “burn it all down”. This was significantly higher among those who said they would vote for One Nation (83 per cent).

Barry said this dim view of the country was also reflected in the swing of general sentiment.

In the Howard years, 65 per cent said Australia was going in the right direction, but 55 per cent now believe it is going in the wrong direction, according to a Redbridge poll for The Australian Financial Review.

“That’s a massive, massive turnaround – there’s entrenched pessimism,” Barry said.

“They’re not just worried about the now, they’re very anxious about the future.”

This sentiment was consistent with many voters in the state’s central and northern regions who spoke to this masthead in December.

In Rockhampton, tradesmen said Labor no longer best represented workers, and business owners complained of industrial relations laws that were weakening productivity.

Coal miners near Mackay said both parties were failing to support the resources sector during the industry downturn, while workers and families also cited housing and cost-of-living pressures, as well as strained access to healthcare.

They’re fed up, and they don’t trust that either major party will improve their lives.

Griffith University expert in Queensland politics Paul Williams said the rise of One Nation and fall of Labor didn’t necessarily mean the opposition was directly losing support to Hanson’s party.

He said the overwhelming evidence in recent national polls was that One Nation was largely rising as a direct result of voters abandoning the LNP.

However, Labor was vulnerable in the regions, and he doubted, based on the current trajectory, they would win back seats lost in 2024, such as in Townsville, Mackay and Rockhampton.

“You’ve got blue-collar blokes in the regions who would have voted Labor, but who would [now] be looking at One Nation – there’s no doubt about that,” Williams said.

But he also said this would likely be offset by those who voted for the LNP in 2024, were living pay cheque to pay cheque, and blamed the incumbent government for failing to fix cost-of-living pressures.

Former state minister and long-time Central Queensland Labor powerbroker Robert Schwarten said the drop in support for the state opposition should serve as a wake-up call.

Although Queenslanders don’t go back to the polls until late 2028, he urged Labor to confirm candidates in regional electorates as soon as possible to launch a long-term campaign that challenges the threat of One Nation.

“I see it as an opportunity,” Schwarten told this masthead from Rockhampton.

“If a poll shows that [One Nation] are eating away at the Labor vote, we have got to attack that in every shape and form.

“We’ve got to put the facts on the table. We’ve got to get candidates out that people want to vote for, and we’ve got to get policies that identify with the people who feel disaffected.”

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