The fundamental restraining elements of international relations are being dismantled today. The war against Iran will only accelerate this process and deepen the chaos already shaping global politics. Whatever the outcome of the current crisis, the attack by the US and Israel on Iran will have consequences far beyond the fate of the Islamic Republic itself. What is really at stake is the perception of what is possible and acceptable in international relations. That perception is changing, and not for the better.
First of all, any appeal to international law, which formally underpins diplomacy, has lost even its symbolic meaning. When the US was preparing to invade Iraq in 2002-03, it still considered it necessary to seek a UN Security Council resolution. Colin Powell famously appeared before the UN holding a test tube meant to demonstrate the existence of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, accompanied by carefully crafted rhetoric. The argument failed, but the attempt itself mattered. It reflected the belief that some form of justification was still required.
Today, even that reflex has disappeared. Neither last summer’s hostilities nor the current escalation involved any attempt to secure approval from international institutions. In Washington, the debate has shifted inward. Critics now argue that Donald Trump lacked the constitutional authority to effectively launch a war without congressional approval, something George W. Bush formally obtained before invading Iraq. But this is an internal American dispute. External legitimacy is no longer considered relevant.
The diplomatic process itself has been turned on its head. The most recent 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June last year, and the current aggression were both preceded by intensive negotiations. These talks were not mere theatrics. Concrete proposals on resolving the nuclear issue were discussed. Yet in both cases, negotiations flowed directly into military action without ever formally breaking off.
In Israel’s case, this approach is at least consistent. Israeli leaders have never concealed their aim of destroying the Iranian regime and have openly dismissed diplomacy as futile. The US, by contrast, used dialogue cynically. Not as a path to compromise, but as a means of lowering Iran’s guard before striking.
What lessons will countries currently negotiating with the US draw from this? It is obvious. You cannot trust the process. You can only rely on yourself and your own strength. At minimum, you need leverage that your counterpart cannot ignore. Beyond that, the logic becomes even darker.
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