With peace talks in Alaska falling through, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are now eyeing Hungary as the venue for renewed discussions on ending the Ukraine conflict. However, it’s the choice of location that has raised eyebrows globally.
Putin currently faces an international arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in 2023 over alleged war crimes, including the unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children. Theoretically, setting foot in Hungary, or even flying through the airspace of ICC signatories, could expose him to arrest.
ICC WARRANT COMPLICATES PLANS
The ICC, lacking its own enforcement body, relies on member states to carry out arrests. Hungary, Romania, and Serbia, all neighbouring countries, are technically obliged to detain Putin if his aircraft crosses their airspace. Germany has already urged Budapest to honour its legal obligations.
Despite this, such an arrest remains unlikely. Although Hungary is a signatory to the Rome Statute that established the ICC, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán began the process of withdrawing from the treaty in April. The withdrawal, however, takes a full year to come into effect, meaning Hungary remains bound by ICC obligations, at least for now.
Still, Orbán has long maintained strong ties with both Trump and Putin. Hungary has reportedly offered assurances of Putin’s safety, citing the April visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, another leader facing ICC charges, as precedent.
ORBÁN’S POLITICAL CALCULATIONS
Orbán, whose government has been in power for 15 years, appears to be leveraging the summit as a domestic distraction amid rising food prices and economic stagnation. He recently claimed Budapest was “essentially the only place in Europe where such a meeting can be held.”
He has already held preliminary conversations with both leaders and is said to be preparing the ground for the proposed summit.
LOGISTICAL AND LEGAL OBSTACLES
If Putin agrees to attend the meeting in Budapest, it would mark his first trip to an EU country since the Ukraine invasion began nearly four years ago. The Kremlin has remained cautious, stating that “many questions still need to be resolved” before any visit is confirmed.
Travelling to Alaska for the previous talks was relatively straightforward, as Russian aircraft could avoid EU and NATO-controlled airspace. A trip to Hungary is considerably more complex due to EU sanctions that ban Russian planes from flying through or landing in member states, Hungary included. While exemptions can be made, it would place the EU in a politically awkward position, either compromising its stance on Russia or being seen as obstructing a potential peace process.
POSSIBLE ROUTES TO BUDAPEST
The direct three-hour flight path from Moscow to Budapest via Belarus and western Ukraine is off the table. Ukrainian airspace remains an active war zone, making it highly dangerous and unpredictable.
A second option involves a five-hour route over Belarus, Poland, and Slovakia. While Belarus poses no problem for Putin, Poland, an ICC supporter and NATO member, could be a significant risk. Warsaw recently warned Moscow against violations after Russian drones breached its airspace. Slovakia, a major buyer of Russian energy, is less likely to interfere.
The most viable option appears to be a longer, eight-hour journey through Turkey, one of the few countries maintaining balanced relations with both Russia and the West, then onward over Greece, across the Mediterranean and Adriatic Seas, into Montenegro, and finally through Serbia into Hungary. Serbia, despite Western pressure, continues to align closely with Moscow.
This route mirrors the one taken by Netanyahu on his way to the UN General Assembly in New York last month, where he carefully avoided hostile or ICC-compliant countries.
A DELICATE BALANCING ACT
Ultimately, Putin’s potential visit hinges on intricate geopolitical manoeuvring and behind-the-scenes diplomacy, particularly from the US, which may need to press NATO allies to permit safe passage.
For the EU, the situation presents a dilemma — allow a suspected war criminal to travel freely for the sake of diplomacy, or risk being painted as an obstacle to peace.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: ZEE News
