The 2026 MLB playoffs start on Sept. 29, and the last four years have shown just how crazy things can get.
Dominating the regular season is great, but it doesn’t mean much once the postseason hits. With 12 teams in the mix, more teams get a shot, and short series make it easy for an underdog to pull off a surprise.
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We’ve already seen plenty of shockers. The 111-win Los Angeles Dodgers got knocked out early in 2022. In 2023, three different 100-win teams lost right away. Then in 2025, Milwaukee had the best record in baseball, only to get swept by the Dodgers in the NLCS.
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The way the bracket is set up makes things even weirder. Division winners automatically get the top spots, even if a wild-card team actually won more games. On top of that, MLB doesn’t reseed after the first round, so one side of the bracket often ends up way harder than the other.
Playing at home hasn’t saved the favorites, either. A team can look average for half the year, sneak into the playoffs and go on a tear all the way to the World Series. With the 2026 game shaping up, pretty much any team is on upset watch.
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10. Baseball has more game-to-game luck than other major sports
MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Orioles
Milwaukee Brewers designated hitter Christian Yelich (22) loses his bat on a swing during the fourth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)
Baseball is built around individual pitches and small moments. A broken-bat hit, a borderline strike call or a bloop single can change one game.
Over 162 games, much of that randomness fades. Teams have enough games to show their true level. Sabermetric models have estimated that roughly half of a team’s win total can be linked to variance rather than pure talent.
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That changes in October. A best-of-three or best-of-five series gives randomness much less time to disappear.
Basketball and football also have variance. However, baseball’s scoring structure makes one or two small plays especially important. That makes short MLB series naturally more upset-prone.
9. Baseball cannot agree on whether the format is better
The expanded postseason has created a clear debate across baseball.
Former Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw has questioned whether the 162-game season feels as important when teams around .500 can still reach October. His concern is simple. More teams have a realistic postseason path.
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There is also a strong argument on the other side. More wild-card places keep more teams alive deep into September. That can make the regular season more interesting for more clubs.
The 2025 season supported that point. No team reached 100 wins, the second straight season without one, following 2024, a stretch of parity unmatched since the early 2000s. The Brewers need two wins in their final six games to reach 100 victories in 2026.
The debate could also lead to changes. The playoff format is part of MLB’s labor discussions with the MLB Players Association. The current collective bargaining agreement expires in December, with a management lockout expected.
8. This year’s AL bracket shows how strange the format can get
MLB: Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Victor Mesa (25) celebrates a run with teammate short stop Taylor Walls (6) during the fourth inning against Boston Red Sox at Tropicana Field. Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)
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The American League already has a perfect example of the problem.
As of this week’s standings, Tampa Bay is locked into the No. 1 seed. The Yankees and Red Sox are on course to meet in the wild-card round. The winner would then face Tampa Bay in the ALDS.
Meanwhile, Texas and Houston are battling for the AL West. The Rangers sit at 78-78. If Texas or Houston wins the division below .500, that team would still receive the No. 3 seed and home-field advantage in the wild-card round.
That could produce the worst full-season record ever for a playoff team. The current mark belongs to the 2005 Padres, who finished 82-80.
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The National League looks more conventional. The Brewers, Dodgers and Braves have clinched their divisions and have better records than the Cubs, Padres and Phillies in the wild-card spots.
Los Angeles also has another issue. The two-time defending champions are chasing a third straight title while dealing with injuries to Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman.
7. Teams can recover from terrible starts
The expanded format also gives teams much more room to survive a poor first half.
MLB’s own research highlighted several recent examples. The 2022 Guardians, 2023 Twins, 2024 Mets, 2024 Astros, 2025 Guardians and 2025 Red Sox were all at or below .500 around the halfway point and still reached the postseason.
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The 2022 Phillies are the clearest example. Philadelphia started 21-29 and still reached the World Series.
That matters because October does not care how a team looked in May. Once a team reaches the field, the difference between a contender and a struggling club can become much smaller.
6. Home field has not stopped wild-card upsets
Wild Card-Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Luis Castillo (21) exits the game in the eighth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays during game one of the wild-card series for the 2022 MLB playoffs at Rogers Centre. Credit: USA TODAY Sports (Reuters)
The higher seed hosts every game of the wild-card series. That means it gets all three games at home if the series goes the distance.
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Even that advantage has not prevented major upsets.
In 2022, the third-seeded Cardinals were swept at home by the sixth-seeded Phillies. The fourth-seeded Blue Jays also lost at home to the fifth-seeded Mariners.
A year later, the third-seeded Brewers lost at home to the sixth-seeded Diamondbacks. Arizona eventually reached the World Series.
Three games simply do not provide enough time for home-field advantage to fully separate two teams.
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5. Recent World Series runs have rewarded wild-card teams
Recent history is filled with teams that entered October without a top seed and still reached the Fall Classic.
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The 2022 Phillies needed the final available NL wild-card spot at 87-75. They still won the NL pennant.
In 2023, both World Series teams were wild-card clubs. The Rangers and Diamondbacks became only the third World Series matchup between two wild-card teams, following 2002 and 2014.
Their combined 174 regular-season wins were the fewest for a World Series game in a full season.
The 2025 Blue Jays also reached Game 7 of the World Series after entering as the AL’s No. 1 seed. The Dodgers, meanwhile, came through as the NL’s No. 3 seed.
Only 2024 followed the traditional path. The No. 1-seeded Dodgers and Yankees met in the World Series.
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4. Top seeds have failed more often than expected
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres players come off the field after the Padres beat the Miami Marlins at Petco Park. Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)
The strongest evidence comes from the last four postseasons.
In 2022, the 111-win Dodgers were eliminated by the 89-73 Padres in the NLDS. San Diego was the No. 5 seed.
The 2023 playoffs were even harsher. The 104-win Braves, 101-win Orioles and 100-win Dodgers all lost in the Division Series.
Then came 2025. Milwaukee finished 97-65 with MLB’s best record. The Brewers had also beaten Los Angeles in all six regular-season meetings.
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That meant little in October. The Dodgers swept Milwaukee in the NLCS. Los Angeles held the majors’ top offense to a .118 team batting average during the series.
Only 2024 provided a clean exception. The Dodgers and Yankees were both No. 1 seeds and met in the World Series.
That means at least one league’s best regular-season team was knocked out early in three of the last four playoffs. In 2022 and 2025, the AL’s No. 1 seed (Houston, then Toronto) survived to the World Series even as the NL favorite fell, only in 2023 did both leagues’ top seeds go down together.
3. Best of three can erase a huge talent gap
The wild-card series is only three games. The division series lasts five games. Only the LCS and World Series use seven-game series.
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That difference is huge.
A 100-win team is clearly stronger than an 82-win team over 162 games. Yet a five-game projection can still produce a 3-2 expected result for both teams.
Cut that series to three games, and the gap becomes even harder to see.
A few hot innings can decide an entire postseason matchup. One dominant pitching performance can change the series. A bad defensive play can end a season.
The format does not remove the talent gap. It simply gives that gap less time to show itself.
2. MLB does not reseed the bracket
MLB: New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees shortstop Jose Caballero (72) slides past Boston Red Sox second baseman Anthony Seigler (48) during the ninth inning at Fenway Park. Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)
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Once the postseason bracket is set, the matchups are locked.
MLB does not reseed after the wild-card round like the NFL does. That can create a major problem for teams with strong records.
Two of the best teams in a league can land on the same side. One must then eliminate the other before the League Championship Series.
The 2026 AL setup shows how important this rule can become. The Yankees and Red Sox are almost sure to meet in the wild-card round, with the winner then facing No. 1 seed Tampa Bay.
A team’s path can therefore depend heavily on where it lands in the bracket.
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1. Division winners get top seeds, not best records
The biggest issue starts with the seeding rule.
Each league’s three division winners automatically receive seeds No. 1 through No. 3. The three wild-card teams receive seeds No. 4 through No. 6.
That means a wild-card team cannot receive a top-two seed under the current system, even if it has a better record than the other division winners.
The 2023 Rays showed how this can work. Tampa Bay won 99 games, the second-best record in the American League. Yet the Rays did not win the AL East.
As a result, they were locked into the No. 4 seed and had to play a wild-card series against a 90-win team.
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The rule rewards division titles rather than overall record. That can place a stronger team below a weaker division winner.
A team can dominate for six months and still face a dangerous three-game series immediately. That is why the modern MLB playoffs make almost every October matchup feel like an upset alert.
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Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: Sports.yahoo.com
