2026 U.S. Open expert picks to win, sleepers to watch at Shinnecock

He’s Scottie Scheffler. 

But he’s playing what you can call un-Scottie Scheffler-like golf. Which is concerning. But then again, maybe that’s good enough. 

Back and forth we go. Do you back him this week at the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club? Or do you stay away? He’s the odds leader. But is he the best pick? To help, here are both sides. 

Back Scottie Scheffler! 

The basics: He’s the world No. 1. He’s a four-time major winner. Should he win this week, he would complete the career grand slam. 

The stats: He’s won once this season. And finished runner-up three times. And finished third twice. He’s ranked first on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total, and strokes gained: tee to green. He’s ranked seventh in SG: off the tee; 17th in SG: approach the green; fourth in SG: around the green; and 18th in SG: putting. 

His thoughts after Memorial, his last tournament, where he tied for 12th: “Overall, I would say pretty frustrating, but the way I played the last two days I definitely feel a lot better with kind of where things are at than I did coming off the course on Friday. I guess I should say in the middle of the round Friday. I started hitting some good shots on the back nine Friday, and then I played decent the last couple days. I just wasn’t sharp enough to make the big move that I needed to make.” 

What’s he think of Shinnecock? “It’s one of those courses where there’s a ton of space out there, but the areas you have to hit into are quite small. So looking at like tee balls where some of ’em are somewhat blind and you’re kind of hitting over that like higher fescue type grass. Then going into some of the greens, the greens are going to play really small, especially if they get firm, and it should be a really challenging week.”

Stay away from Scottie Scheffler!

The stats: He hasn’t won since January. He tied for 14th at the PGA Championship. He’s ranked 38th on the PGA Tour in first-round scoring average. Here are his ranks in putting from 6 feet or shorter: 6 feet, 146th; 5 feet, 52nd; 4 feet, 100th; 3 feet, 146th. 

The thought at the Memorial on the 16th hole in round one: Frustration. Here’s the story. 

What does Brandel Chamblee think: “His game is off and so he’s provided opportunity to the best players in the world,” the Golf Channel analyst said in a teleconference. “He’s still the man to beat, but he is no longer the man that can’t be beat.”  

The conclusion! 

Don’t overthink it. Golf isn’t linear. If Shinnecock places a premium on iron play to set up putts, Scheffler is a great pick, and you may catch him at a good price based on some of the recent questions. But, as Chamblee noted, he isn’t a slam dunk. 

With that, members of our staff have each made a to-win and a sleeper selection to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish. 

On to our analysis. 

2026 U.S. Open expert picks to win, sleepers to watch

Alan Bastable 

To-win: Cameron Young, +1,800. Just about all of the favorites — Scottie, Rory, Bryson, Ludvig — give me pause for one reason or another (spotty form, mostly) … except for one: Cameron Young. Chalk up the local(ish) boy for his first USO title.

Sleeper pick: Adam Scott, +10,000. He didn’t play in the 1896 U.S. Open at Shinny — it just feels that way. Look for Scotty to make some noise in what will be his 100th (!) major start.

Josh Berhow 

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +550. It’s still early, but it could be a rainy — and more importantly, windy — few days on Long Island, which means I start to look at guys who have played well in Open Championships. That narrows it down to two names for me: Scottie Scheffler (last year’s Open winner) and Matt Fitzpatrick, who tied for fourth last year and has been one of the Tour’s three best players this season. That brings me to Scottie, who is due, and who wins to complete the career Grand Slam.

Sleeper pick: Cameron Smith, +8,000. Again, back to those tricky conditions, which shouldn’t scare off Cam Smith. He’s had a rough couple of years but showed us at the PGA Championship that he still has the ability to take it low.

Adam Christensen 

To-win: Tommy Fleetwood +2,200. This is more of a heart pick than a head pick, but he is up there for “best player without a major” status — and why not get one at a place where he shot the best round of his career? Fleetwood is an absolute flusher and he just flashed some form at the Memorial, which is enough for me to pick him heading to a place where a good approach game will be rewarded.

Sleeper pick: Alex Fitzpatrick +9,000. Before last week’s Canadian Open, Alex Fitzpatrick played five PGA Tour events this season and finished inside the top 10 four times, three of which at tournaments that were not all-out birdie fests. Confidence is huge, so for a long shot, I’ll take a guy riding higher than anyone else at this price point right now.

James Colgan 

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +550. I’ve thought about this. I’ve grinded on it. I’ve questioned the intelligence of picking the best player of the past five years to win the event he MOST wants to win while his game seems to be in the midst of a rare lull. It all seems a little bit too silly — too nonsensical to work out. But then I remember that Scottie’s entire career has been defined by his capacity to win anticlimactically. It’s pretty much what he does. And winning the career grand slam less than 12 months after setting up the dominoes for it — before any of us in the media can begin the long journey of questioning his competitive integrity or aura or “ability to win the big one?” It strikes me as too perfect NOT to happen. Add in the fact that Shinnecock has historically picked all-time winners, and I’m officially out of alternative options.

Sleeper pick: David Puig, +12,500, The last time the U.S. Open went to Shinnecock, we witnessed an all-time final round by a young, ascending player with all-world ability. His name was Tommy Fleetwood. He finished second, but the performance is etched into my memory of the kind of brilliance that can come from brashness under the Shinny spotlight. I like Puig’s chances.

Jack Hirsh 

To win: Tommy Fleetwood, +2,200. I had Scottie Scheffler penciled in here for the longest time, but while I think he’s still the undisputed No. 1 player in the world, his game isn’t as bulletproof as it once was. Instead I’m going to go with Fleetwood, who was a few strokes away from the playoff two weeks ago at the Memorial. He’s got the best short game on the PGA Tour this season and seems to have figured things out with a new putter. Not to mention, he nearly shot 62 here last time.

Sleeper pick: Sahith Theegala, +15,000, Are we serious with these odds? Sahith had a bad year in 2025 but has responded with multiple top-10s so far this year. I could see him putting it all together at a U.S. Open setup that rewards great wedge play.

Jessica Marksbury

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +550. I just can’t quit the World No. 1. Sure, he hasn’t had his “best stuff” of late —  but his worst finish of the year was a tie for 24th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and that was back in March. The U.S. Open is the game’s toughest test and Scottie has all the tools to win major No. 5 — and complete the career grand slam.  

Sleeper pick: Russell Henley, +4,500. These odds are a tad bit strong for a true sleeper, but I like Henley’s credentials heading into the Open. He’s the most accurate driver on Tour, and hitting fairways will be huge at Shinnecock. Plus, he’s in the midst of an awesome season, with a win at the Charles Schwab Challenge and four top-10 finishes and nine top-25s in 13 events.

Maddi MacClurg  

To-win: Matt Fitzpatrick, +2,500. To win at Shinnecock Hills, you need precision off the tee, elite ball-striking and the ability to scramble when greens are inevitably missed — all strengths for Fitzpatrick. If the putter gets hot, I think the Englishman will be in the mix on Sunday.

Zephyr Melton 

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +550. Shinnecock will reward those who control their golf ball best, and no one on the planet is more skilled at that than Scottie Scheffler. Give him the career grand slam. 

Sleeper pick: Shane Lowry, +6,600. Does Shane Lowry qualify as a sleeper? Whatever. It’ll be windy, so those links-golf skills should come in handy. I can see the Irishman making a run.

Jake Morrow  

To-win: Ben Griffin, +6,600. Solid start to the year, has recently got some gear locked in, and with fairways being so friendly out there I think his potential issues with accuracy off the tee can be mitigated, allowing for some more aggressive approach play.

Sleeper pick: Sungjae Im, +12,500. He’s playing better golf than people may think, and same thing as Ben — the course allows for more aggressive approach play, which is Sungjae’s sauce.

Nick Piastowski 

To-win: Wyndham Clark, +4,000. Let’s go with one of the hottest players in golf. If the fairways are indeed open, that benefits him, too. 

Sleeper pick: Gary Woodland, +12,500. If you’ve read this space before, you’ll know I love a good storyline. And a Woodland win at the U.S. Open would be the best storyline. 

Josh Schrock

To-win: Tommy Fleetwood +2,200. Finished second at Shinnecock in 2018, thanks to a blistering final round. Coming off a tie for fourth at the Memorial. Has the approach play and short game needed to hang on at Shinnecock. A lot of people will be looking at Tommy to win the Open when he goes home to Royal Birkdale, but he gets it done a month earlier and wins a proper U.S. Open test.

Sleeper pick: Adam Scott +10,000. Playing in his 100th consecutive major, I expect Scott to play smart, disciplined golf and be a factor on the weekend. Outside of a missed cut at Aronimink, Scott has been playing well, including a tie for fourth at Doral and a tie for 12th at the Memorial. He was in the mix on Sunday at Oakmont last year and I think it’ll be a similar story on Long Island.

Johnny Wunder  

To-win: Jon Rahm, +1,200. The runner-up at the PGA was a sign that he’s still one of the elite big-game hunters in golf. Shinny requires elite ball striking and imagination around the greens — which he has in spades. If the putter even remotely shows up, nobody beats him. 

Sleeper pick: David Puig, +12,500. This will be his coming-out party. Like Rahm, he’s an elite ball striker but may have the best short game in the world. He’s long, putts it great, and if his iron play is in order, you will see his name right in the mix. This kid is a DAWG. 

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