The Green Bay Packers head into a crucial NFC North contest with the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday looking to avenge a Week 1 loss to their division foes which came with no shortage of controversy.
With the Packers sitting at 1-2 in the division, Sunday’s result could be monumental come the end of the season. Victory at Lambeau Field is a must for Jordan Love and company, but Brian Flores’ vaunted Vikings defense will not make it easy on them.
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Here are three thoughts on the matchup between Green Bay’s offense and Minnesota’s defense:
Can the new-look offensive line hold up?
A lot has changed on Green Bay’s offensive line since these two teams last met in Week 1. The O-line from left to right was Jordan Morgan, Donovan Jennings, Sean Rhyan, Jacob Monk and Zach Bako-Bewele. Of that five, only Morgan will likely start on Sunday.
The Packers know exactly what to expect from Flores’ Vikings defense. He is going to blitz relentlessly, looking to cause confusion and ultimately mistakes up front, and the offensive line has a huge challenge on their hands, especially John Williams if he starts at center again.
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However, Green Bay might be in a better position to withstand the bombardment of blitzes than they were in the season opener, with Morgan’s play improving by the week and the addition of veterans Laken Tomlinson and Kevin Zeitler – who may finally play ahead of Aaron Banks – at guard.
Jordan Love has shown he can overcome pressure, and even immediate pressure on a regular basis this year, but the offensive line has to do enough in pass protection to allow him to get into a rhythm.
Can Green Bay lean on the run?
Every defense has flaws, no matter how scary they may be, and Minnesota’s is the run game.
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It is not exactly a glaring weakness, as they do rank third in the NFL in rushing success rate allowed, but they are also 17th in expected points added (EPA) per rush, 21st in yards per carry, 24th in yards after contact per rush, 21st in run stuff rate and 25th in explosive run rate allowed.
The Packers ran the ball 42 times against the Vikings in a comfortable win at Lambeau Field last year, compared to only 22 passes, although they were helped by J.J. McCarthy and the Minnesota offense offering very little threat on the other side.
While the run game has shown progress of late, including some encouraging play from Kaleb Johnson, it would be a surprise if Green Bay is able to run the ball down Minnesota’s throat on Sunday, especially as they are without Josh Jacobs after a broken finger injury.
Still, Matt LaFleur must be patient with the run game, as even if they are not ripping off four-plus yards a carry, Johnson has shown he is capable of breaking loose for explosive gains, leading the league in breakaway rate and ranking ninth in yards after contact per attempt.
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It cannot be all on Love’s shoulders this week, and the run game has to contribute.
Prepare for feast or famine in the pass game
Green Bay had no problem finding explosives in the passing game back in Week 1, and that has continued to be the case throughout the season, but it was all or nothing against Minnesota, with Love completing only 50% of his passes.
That is partially a credit to Flores’ group, which is allowing a league-low 57.7% completion rate. It is a defense that invites volatility, and while there are chunk gains to be found, it is difficult to walk that tight rope without turning the ball over. Minnesota is fourth in the NFL in interception rate.
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Love should certainly look to take advantage of opportunities downfield, but he must pick his spots.
If the Packers are going to find a safer way to move the ball against the Vikings, it will be via yards after the catch. The Vikings rank 23rd in yards after the catch per reception, which makes sense due to their heavy-blitz style leaving gaps if opposing quarterbacks can get the ball out quickly.
Perhaps Tucker Kraft, who was playing his first game back since a torn ACL in the Week 1 matchup, could be a focal point as Green Bay’s primary YAC weapon. Savion Williams, who missed the first game against Minnesota, may also factor in.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: 3 things on Packers offense vs Vikings defense: Feast or famine
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