The key issues giving Minns an edge four months out from election

Chris Minns’ Labor either leads or is tied as the party voters rate best placed to manage key issues, including the economy, health and housing, giving the government a significant edge four months out from the NSW election.

The latest Resolve Political Monitor survey reveals that deep into their first term, most NSW voters see Minns and Labor as superior to the Coalition or One Nation on managing hospitals and health services, the education system and housing.

On economic management, the issue voters overwhelmingly rate as most important in deciding their vote, Labor is on equal footing with the Coalition and ahead of One Nation.

The latest Resolve poll of 1100 people, taken in two samples covering both October and November, found only marginal shifts in the party’s primary votes, all within the margin of error.

Ahead of what shapes as the first three-way contest in the state’s modern history, Labor’s vote increased one point to 30 per cent, while One Nation also jumped one point to 26 per cent. The Coalition fell 1 percentage point to 23 per cent, a return to the record low it recorded in June and July.

The two samples occurred between October 6 and October 10, when the High Court issued a seismic ruling that a Hunter Valley coal mine expansion was invalid because planning authorities had failed to properly consider the impacts of emissions from coal burnt overseas. The second, over November 2 and November 7, included the Reserve Bank’s Cup Day decision to increase the cash rate for a fifth time this year. The Greens jumped two points to 13 per cent.

Minns maintains a commanding lead as preferred premier, with 30 per cent of voters choosing the Labor leader compared to 12 per cent for the Coalition’s Kellie Sloane and 11 per cent for One Nation’s leader, Mike Newman. However, Newman’s rating jumped three points from the previous survey and Sloane’s fell by three.

While Minns lifted three points as preferred premier, his rating is well down on the 40 per cent he enjoyed over December and January.

As voters grapple with the combined pressures of rising interest rates and inflation, the poll found 32 per cent rated the economy and financial management as the key issue ahead of the March election.

In a boon for both Labor and the Coalition, the two parties were tied among voters as the best party to manage the issue, with 27 per cent of respondents preferring either Minns or Sloane. The two parties were well ahead of One Nation and Newman on the issue, at 23 per cent, with 16 per cent undecided and 7 per cent rating someone else.

That result will be particularly welcomed by Minns. As the government grapples with falling stamp duty revenue as a result of the housing downturn, Labor has sought to make spending restraint a virtue heading into the election.

Treasurer Daniel Mookhey used his final full pre-election budget in June to spruik the government’s deficit reduction, and the premier has sought to distance himself from his increasingly unpopular federal counterparts on the economy by urging spending restraint. In parliament on Thursday, Minns said the government was in “a period of belt-tightening”.

“It is important that we are careful with public funds so that we do not add to pressure on the economy and make the Reserve Bank’s job even harder,” he said.

Hospitals and health services were rated the second most important issue, at 22 per cent, followed by housing on 18 per cent. Despite a series of issues in the hospital sector, including overcrowded emergency departments, and high-profile missteps such as thousands of admission referrals left unread in an unmonitored email inbox for months, Labor enjoyed a clear lead with voters on the issue. Resolve found 32 per cent of voters saw Labor as the best option, compared to 21 per cent for the Coalition and 23 per cent for One Nation.

Despite criticism over its progress on increasing housing supply, the Minns government appears to have been rewarded for its efforts on an issue it made a key tenet of its first-term platform.

The poll found 29 per cent of voters preferred Labor on housing and planning, compared to 25 per cent for the Coalition and 22 per cent for One Nation.

The Coalition enjoyed a small advantage – 26 per cent to 25 per cent of respondents – on the issue of crime. Despite high-profile gangland shootings and youth crime concerns, only 12 per cent of voters rated crime as their key issue.

The key issues were based on 550 responses between November 2 and 7.

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