As of this Friday, Brent crude stood at approximately $72.87 per barrel, but things seem to have changed a bit since then. The USA and Israel have bombed Iran and taken out their tyrannical leader, Khamenei, and the Iranians have begun bombing cities all over the region, plus they have closed the Strait of Hormuz and bombed an oil tanker.
The sitting ducks of the oil tankers are easy prey to the zippy little boats of the Iranian navy.
Inflation will no doubt rise as the cost of oil will rise. Everything that is bought by the consumer has to be delivered utilising oil energy; if oil rises above $150/barrel, there is going to be hell to pay. Over 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
As of early March 2026, the average UK unleaded petrol price is around 131.7p to 133p per litre. If Brent crude rises to $153 per barrel from its current level of approximately $72-73 per barrel (a rise of roughly $80-81 per barrel), this would represent a significant increase driven by severe supply disruptions.
The cost of a single litre of petrol in the UK also consists of approximately 55% fuel tax, plus an add-on of 20% VAT. Factoring in the increase in Brent crude prices and other variables, the cost per litre could easily be hiked to 196.4p or even higher.
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