Hyderabad: The ‘now you see me, now you don’t’ predictions about how this year’s southwest monsoon will play over India continued on Thursday, with the South Asia Climate Outlook Forum predicting below normal rains between May and September, with some parts of the country bucking the trend.
Pockets of peninsular India including some parts of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh along with some areas in Gujarat and Rajasthan and southern Tamil Nadu and south eastern Kerala are among those, the forum said that could receive not just normal rainfall, but could even see some cases of precipitation in the above normal category. Parts of Northeast India too are expected to see above normal rainfall if the current predictions hold.
The forum, which met in Male, Maldives on Wednesday, according to the World Meteorological Organisation, had representation from nine national met services – Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Maldives, and Sri Lanka.
The WMO, in a news release said the latest forecast is based on analysis of global climate conditions, and that there is a strong consensus among experts that El Nino conditions are likely to develop during this year’s monsoon season.
The forum also took note of how the Indian Ocean Dipole, another key climate driver in the region, was expected to move from a neutral to positive phase. The possibility of a positive IOD was previously reported in these columns on April 16 in the report ‘Giant battle between oceans is on, monsoon seems vulnerable’.
The WMO release said that the forum also concluded that both the maximum daytime and minimum night temperatures are expected to be above normal between May and September this year across the region.
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