Question of the week: Can Mercedes still lose out this year?

The Miami Formula 1 weekend was something of a surprise. Yes, the end result remained the same, with Kimi Antonelli winning his third race in a row and extending his championship lead, but there are clear signs Mercedes isn’t going to run away unchallenged.

Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull all brought upgrade packages to the United States and made visible progress. The papaya team secured a 1-2 in Saturday’s sprint, and Lando Norris had every chance to win on Sunday as well. Ferrari is also getting closer, while Red Bull has addressed many of its issues.

Will Mercedes hold on? Our writers offer their takes.

Yes, but if its developments deliver then Miami might be a blip

Haydn Cobb, Autosport:

To answer the question in a binary form, yes, Mercedes can lose out. In the same way that yes, any of its rivals could outdevelop Mercedes and charge away at the front. But to truly get the full picture, it will be a question we will revisit frequently over the opening half of the season.

McLaren, Red Bull and Ferrari delivered major upgrade packages in Miami and, at least for the first two mentioned, it had a big impact on performance with a clear step forward relative to the competition. However, Mercedes has promised to deliver a significant update for the next race in Canada, which could re-extend the gap again. Or it could have a minimal impact. Or somewhere in between.

Mercedes has clearly enjoyed an early dominance in the new F1 era, but the development race will be so fast and so vital it could change just as quickly. 

Adding to that, the track characteristics, temperatures and conditions at each round will swing in the favour of different teams. Being confident in predicting how that plays out at each track is very difficult in the new era, but given Miami has never been a stronghold for Mercedes – and it still took pole and the grand prix win last weekend, having never won there before – it might become just a blip. Or it might be the start of its downfall. 

In short: too early to tell. But that’s a good thing, because it means we’ll be glued to the upcoming rounds to find out.

McLaren is already properly in the fight

Oleg Karpov, Motorsport.com Global edition:

Call me an optimist, but I still see McLaren coming back on top. The current standings don’t look particularly great for the team that won both titles last year, but if you break it down, the situation isn’t as bad as the numbers suggest. In fact, out of four races McLaren could easily have won two – in Japan and Miami – had circumstances played out just a bit differently. And that is with all the troubles the team experienced at the start of the season.

Most of those were related to getting to grips with the new product from Mercedes High Performance Powertrains. In China, none of the papaya cars were even able to start the race – but that’s something very unlikely to repeat. More importantly, it looks like the initial advantage Mercedes had as a works team has now more or less disappeared, as Miami was a clean weekend for McLaren from a reliability standpoint.

And the performance is there, too. Given the nature of the competition under the new regulations, we’re in for a season where the development race will, to some extent, become a yo-yo, too. There are still big gains to be found with these cars – as Miami proved – and each upgrade can potentially deliver more substantial steps than last year, for example. Mercedes will surely also make progress, but what McLaren has excelled at in recent seasons is exactly that – development.

Lando Norris, McLaren

Photo by: Ryan Pierse / Getty Images

With the MCL40 already almost a match for the W17 early in the year, you can’t underestimate the Woking team’s chances. Lando Norris – despite a DNS in China – is 49 points behind Kimi Antonelli, whose season so far has been almost perfect. Oscar Piastri is another eight points further back, having participated in effectively only two races. The Italian’s run of good fortune will end at some point – and with 18 races to go, it’s still all to play for for the McLaren drivers.

Given what McLaren has shown in the recent past, it wouldn’t be a surprise if, by the end of the year, the papaya cars are once again clearly the fastest on the grid.

It will be entertaining, but Mercedes will prevail

Federico Faturos, Motorsport.com Latin America:

We all came into the season expecting the championship to be a walk in the park for Mercedes. It certainly looked that way in Melbourne and Shanghai, and perhaps a little less so in Suzuka. Miami, however, told a different story – but that doesn’t mean Mercedes will suddenly lose its grip on 2026.

McLaren did an excellent job to secure sprint pole with Lando Norris and follow it up with a 1-2 finish on Saturday, and full credit is due. But there was also a sense in the paddock that Mercedes had not fully optimised its package in Miami initially, particularly in areas such as deployment.

The Brackley-based outfit took a step forward from main qualifying onwards, and while Sunday’s victory could realistically have gone either way between Kimi Antonelli and Norris, there are still several reasons to believe Mercedes holds the upper hand – and will likely continue to do so over the course of the season.

Miami was the first weekend on which McLaren introduced a significant upgrade package, with Ferrari and Red Bull doing the same, while Mercedes stood out as the only top team not to bring major updates. Even so, the W17 appeared to retain a slight edge on pure pace, largely thanks to its superior downforce. That makes the Canadian Grand Prix particularly intriguing.

George Russell, Mercedes, Oscar Piastri, McLaren

Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Sutton Images via Getty Images

There are also clear areas for improvement. Mercedes’ race starts have been consistently poor – something Toto Wolff openly described as “unacceptable”. It is reasonable to expect that this will be addressed, which would prevent their drivers – particularly Antonelli – from losing positions early on and allow them to capitalise more effectively on strong qualifying performances.

All things considered, McLaren’s step forward in Miami was impressive and, as reigning world champions, their credentials must be taken seriously. Red Bull has yet to fully reveal its true pace, and Ferrari cannot be ruled out just yet, so a genuine fight may well develop. But over the full season, Mercedes should still come out on top.

No, Miami was actually a missed opportunity for its rivals

Jose Carlos de Celis, Motorsport.com Spain:

Perhaps many would have answered yes right after the Miami sprint race, but Mercedes bounced back quickly. On Sundays, it remains the only team winning races. And that’s after a month without competition, during which its rivals have clearly closed the gap – though not enough to strip the Anglo-German outfit of the privilege of still having the best car in F1 2026.

McLaren will win races, and Antonelli will make the mistakes expected of someone his age as the pressure mounts. But there are two aspects that those who believe Mercedes is no longer the team to beat fail to consider. On the one hand, they have lost the lead at the start of every race, within the first few meters, and it’s not crazy to think that once they manage to hold on to their pole positions, we can expect even more lopsided victories and more boring races.

Oscar Piastri, McLaren

Photo by: Guido De Bortoli / LAT Images via Getty Images

On the other hand, Miami was never the best venue for Mercedes, not even in its years with competitive cars, and yet it came away with the main victory – the one that awarded the most points. Furthermore, its rivals have missed the opportunity to take advantage of the sprint format – with only one free practice session – and, above all, they introduced a major update package in Miami, while Mercedes’ will arrive in Canada for the next race. Their status as the number one team could even be reinforced there.

Canada will provide answers

Ken Tanaka, Motorsport.com Japan:

Before Kimi Antonelli’s F1 debut, I had doubts about his talent. His results in F2 were not particularly impressive, and I clearly remember asking myself at the time, “Is he really that good?”. After watching these last three races, it’s clear that my doubts were misplaced…

Antonelli’s performances over the past three races have been outstanding. The Miami Grand Prix in particular was far from an easy race, yet he managed to beat last year’s champion, Lando Norris, in a direct fight – an achievement that commands great respect.

Now, the topic at hand is whether Mercedes could be beaten this season, but I think we should reserve judgment until the next round in Canada. In Miami, it was evident that McLaren, Ferrari, and Red Bull all brought major upgrades and demonstrated pace comparable to Mercedes. The latter, on the other hand, did not introduce updates this time, as the team is planning to bring its own to Canada. Let’s see how effective those updates will be.

If the upgrades deliver a significant step forward and allow Mercedes to dominate its rivals as it did in the opening three races, then its chances of securing the title this season will be very high. However, if the gains are more modest, there is every possibility that other teams could defeat Mercedes – with McLaren looking like the strongest contender.

All eyes, then, will be on Mercedes in Montreal.

Cracks in Mercedes’ solid armor

Khaldoun Younes, Motorsport.com Middle East:

We came away from the Miami race with a renewed sense of optimism for the season: Mercedes’ dominance is no longer guaranteed.

It is true that the Silver Arrows have yet to introduce their own updates, with attention now turning to Canada in that regard. However, we are talking about teams that have managed to close significant gaps in a short period of time.

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Sutton Images via Getty Images

As Frederic Vasseur, Toto Wolff, and other team principals have acknowledged, the real battle now lies in the development race over the remainder of the season.

This brings an important question back to the table: could Mercedes lose what currently looks like two almost certain titles?

Predicting how the competition will unfold is clearly not an easy task, especially in the early phase of a completely new era. Still, the signs offer a glimpse of potential cracks in Mercedes’ solid armor.

We must not forget that the implementation of the ADUO system is approaching, along with stricter controls on engine compression ratios, an issue that sparked considerable debate at the start of the season.

Everyone remembers McLaren’s remarkable comeback following its mid-season updates in 2023, and then the Miami upgrades in 2024, which ultimately paved the way for two consecutive championship titles. The papaya team, therefore, is no stranger to winning formulas.

Ferrari, despite inconsistent performances and updates, remains a force to be reckoned with. As for Red Bull, it cannot be ruled out from securing podiums or even victories with a driver of Verstappen’s caliber, who thrives on competition as we saw last season.

Will the Silver Arrows lose? In my view, it is still too early to say. We need to wait until Canada before drawing clear conclusions about the season. What is already clear, however, is that this season is shaping up to be far more exciting than the pessimists had anticipated.

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– The Motorsport.com Team

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