Hegseth seeks to convince allies U.S. should stay quiet on Taiwan

Hegseth over the weekend became the first Pentagon chief in more than a decade to avoid mentioning Taiwan during a speech that lasted about 30 minutes at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue. He declared “the era of performative outrage is over” while outlining a “strong, quiet and clear” policy toward the region, and hailing ties with Beijing as “better than they’ve been in many years.”

The softer language, a sharp contrast from Hegseth’s address a year ago, came just weeks after Xi cautioned Donald Trump in Beijing that mishandling the Taiwan situation could lead to “clashes” between the superpowers. While Hegseth also noted “rightful alarm” at China’s military buildup and showered nearly every Asian country with praise for boosting defense spending, the overall tone showed an eagerness to sidestep tensions with Beijing.

“On China, something had clearly changed: this was perhaps the least confronting speech from a US administration in the 23-year history of the Shangri-la Dialogue,” said Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College at the Australian National University. “The great uncertainty is whether this all reflects strength or vulnerability in the US negotiating position.”

Speaking to reporters as he left Singapore on Saturday night, Hegseth said US policy toward Taiwan remained the same — with an important caveat.

“The only change you might see is how we talk,” he said, adding that the US should speak “softly, while carrying a big stick.” That phrase is widely associated with former President Theodore Roosevelt, who initiated the construction of the Panama Canal, sought to keep European powers out of Latin America and flexed American military and diplomatic muscle in both Europe and Asia.

One major test of whether US policy toward Taiwan remains unchanged in practice will be a stalled $14 billion arms package, which Trump called a “bargaining chip” following his meeting with Xi — a comment that broke decades of diplomatic norms. Hegseth wasn’t asked about Trump’s remark in public over the weekend, and sidestepped a question on whether the weapons deal would be finalized.

Taiwan Defense Minister Wellington Koo told reporters on Saturday that Hegseth’s speech overall “emphasized safeguarding peace and stability” in the Indo-Pacific. “We will continue to strengthen our self-defense capabilities, and Taiwan and the US will maintain close exchanges,” he added.

The quieter US approach toward the self-ruled democracy comes as Xi steps up efforts to isolate Taiwan’s leader. China in April pressured a trio of African countries to deny President Lai Ching-te access to their airspace, a rare move to block him from traveling abroad. The New York Times reported on Friday that Beijing had expelled one of its journalists in February over the publication’s interview with Lai several months earlier.

Although Beijing’s chief military diplomat skipped the Shangri-La Dialogue for the second year running, Chinese delegates were generally pleased it didn’t turn into a staging ground for US-China tensions like in past years. Hegseth’s more moderate tone, and particularly his use of the Beijing-approved phrase “constructive strategic stability” to describe US-China ties, was “commendable,” said Da Wei, director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University.

Even so, Da expressed wariness over Hegseth’s “big stick” reference to Roosevelt, saying it carried a “distinct coloring of interventionism.” While the US wants to stabilize relations, it’s also urging regional countries to increase military spending to counter China, he added.

“This is a blatant contradiction and I believe that countries in the region will make their own wise and discerning judgments,” said Da, who attended the event in Singapore.

‘Strange’ Criticisms

While Hegseth sought to avoid agitating China, two US treaty allies that form the First Island Chain alongside Taiwan had some of the sharpest remarks toward Beijing.

In unusually frank comments on Sunday, Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi hit out at Beijing, saying it was “strange” that a country with a huge arsenal of nuclear weapons had been accusing Japan of “new militarism.”

In an interview with Bloomberg Television on Saturday, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro called Japan, Vietnam and Taiwan part of a “convergence endeavor” bound by a common goal, and suggested people from Taiwan could take refuge in his nation in the event of any military invasion by China.

Although Beijing isn’t showing signs of imminent military action, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said this month the Philippines would likely get involved in any such conflict, due to its proximity to Taiwan. Those comments came days before he traveled to Japan for a summit with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who last November enraged China with similar remarks.

American forces have stepped up cooperation with Japan and the Philippines, which host US forces on military bases flanking Taiwan. The trio held annual joint drills this year, with Tokyo sending combat troops to participate for the first time in its post-World War II history.

China has long been wary of the US trying to form a Pacific version of NATO, which is ironic given Hegseth on Saturday reserved some of his harshest criticism for allies in Europe, whom he branded “moralizing” agents of drama. Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, the chair of the NATO Military Committee, dismissed concerns of friction, saying in an interview that the relationship with the Pentagon is stable and free of “drama.”

Even as Hegseth praised Asian allies including South Korea, Japan and Australia for stepping up efforts to reduce reliance on the US, he avoided highlighting the $25 billion special military budget that Taiwan passed this month — much of which will be spent on purchasing US weapons.

Ignoring Taiwan’s extra spending was a missed opportunity, according to Chris Estep, a non-resident fellow in the Asia program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, who helped draft former US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s 2023 and 2024 speeches at the Shangri-La Dialogue, both of which mentioned the chip hub.

“Praising Taipei’s recent moves would have sent a strong and clear message about Washington’s longstanding interest in deterring conflict across the Strait,” Estep said. “Silence sends its own kind of message.”