US President Donald Trump’s Middle East war has been a disaster that has devastated Iran and Lebanon and collaterally damaged the world’s economy, halted energy and fertiliser supplies and now must shape as one of the greatest own goals in military warfare.
The president came to power on the foundational foreign and domestic policy doctrine of “America First”, and his foreign and military debacle is not only attracting trenchant criticism at home but has made the US look weaker and ridiculous internationally.
Trump is now scrambling to take credit for a deal that may end the conflict with Iran, pave the way for restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, ease oil prices, revive stock markets and provide a $425 billion development fund for the country he bombed.
Further, he claims his deal is similar to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which was agreed under Barack Obama, to limit Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.
But the memorandum of understanding includes a joint commitment to negotiate a final deal to be thrashed out by US and Iranian negotiators over the next 60 days – a time-frame that, given Trump’s mercurial personality, risks the settlement turning into a ceasefire that isn’t a ceasefire.
As things stand, the deal seems to have restored the status quo before Trump decided to ignore the US Constitution and failed to seek congressional approval to wage war. He also brushed off advisers and counsel from allies, preferring to order joint strikes with Israel aimed at destroying the Islamic Republic’s ability to make a nuclear weapon.
Certainly, Iran deserved little sympathy. The rule of the ayatollahs was abhorrent, the regime is regarded as a sponsor of world terrorism and the resultant pariah state sanctions and internal dissent led to the Iranian economy and currency hitting rock bottom when US and Israel attacked, killing off the leadership on February 26 – the opening day of the conflict.
However, early air strikes killed 165 Iranian schoolgirls, too. The US-Israeli foray lost world sympathy then and there, and the situation was exacerbated by soaring fuel prices.
Trump not only seemed blindsided by Tehran’s entirely predictable use of the Strait of Hormuz as a weapon, but he threatened to destroy Iran’s millennia-old civilisation.
Stuck in the mire of his own creation, with the strait closure increasing political and financial pressure at home and abroad, Trump then turned on allies for declining to send warships to help. He singled out some members of the Five Eyes security alliance for not assisting the US, leaving policymakers in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom bemused, if not confused.
Doubts remain over the ceasefire, the great unknown being whether Israel will accept the new situation. But Iran has won Trump’s war. The Tehran administration did not fall and sanctions may be lifted. The strait is to return to the pre-war status: open.
Trump’s misadventure has diminished America’s moral standing and undermined its vaunted military ascendancy, a development that will have long-term consequences for allies such as Australia.
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