Hyderabad:The monsoon has become a case of local contrasts, with rainfall deficits stretching across most districts even as forecasts point to neighbouring districts receiving very different amounts of rain over the rest of the season.
Data shared by Dr O.P. Sreejith, scientist and head, climate monitoring and prediction group, India Meteorological Department (IMD), show that between 1951 and 2023, Telangana experienced 17 El Nino years, yet seasonal rainfall behaved very differently each time.
The state recorded a 39.3 per cent deficit in 1972, 35.7 per cent in 2004, and 28.3 per cent in 2002. But the state also recorded more rainfall in some El Nino years — 24.3 per cent surplus in 1953, 14 per cent surplus in 1976 and 15.3 per cent surplus in 2023.
While seasonal totals fluctuated, one feature remained consistent: rainfall became increasingly uneven within the season, with sharp month-to-month swings, particularly during August and September.
The same pattern is emerging this year, as IMD data up to July 20 show 31 of Telangana’s 33 districts were in rainfall deficit. Only Mulugu had normal rainfall, while Kamareddy remained within the normal range with a nine per cent deficit.
The steepest deficits were recorded in Medchal Malkajgiri (minus 59 per cent), Yadadri Bhuvanagiri (minus 59), Nirmal (minus 57), Wanaparthy (minus 54), Warangal (minus 54), Hanamkonda (minus 53) and Hyderabad (minus 47).
The seasonal forecast did not indicate a uniformly poor monsoon. Instead, IMD’s district-level outlook shows that normal rainfall was favoured across much of central and northern Telangana, while below-normal rainfall signals were stronger over southern and north-eastern districts.
The forecast also noted that neighbouring districts may fall into different rainfall categories, and that no part of Telangana has a probability exceeding 75 per cent for any one rainfall category.This suggested that rainfall anomalies were likely to remain localised rather than statewide.
Supporting this, Dr Stella S., while presenting the findings at the state government’s El Nino preparedness seminar in Hyderabad, presented climate risk data showing that El Nino impacts are expected to differ widely across Telangana because rainfall deficits interact with local exposure and vulnerability.
The assessment identifies three priority monitoring belts: the south-western dryland region covering Mahbubnagar, Narayanpet, Jogulamba Gadwal, Wanaparthy and Nagarkurnool; the western and north-western belt comprising Sangareddy, Medak, Kamareddy, Nizamabad, Nirmal, Adilabad and Kumuram Bheem Asifabad; and a central belt including Siddipet, Jangaon, Rajanna Sircilla and Karimnagar, where agriculture, groundwater dependence and drought exposure increase vulnerability during El Nino years.
Ground conditions already reflect the uneven season. Dr Vinod Kumar Singh, director of ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (Crida), reported that while Telangana’s June rainfall deficit was only nine per cent, the deficit widened to 47 per cent by July 20. Many mandals in southern Telangana have received less than 50 mm of rain during July and have gone more than two weeks without a day receiving even 10 mm of rainfall, affecting cotton grown on shallow soils.
The numbers suggest Telangana’s monsoon is becoming increasingly fragmented, with rainfall varying sharply across districts and through the season, making district-level planning more important than relying on a single statewide rainfall figure.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: deccanchronicle.com
