The World Economic Forum’s Chief Economists’ Outlook, published on 22 September 2026, finds that the global economy is stabilising, although fiscal constraints, geopolitical risks, rising living costs and uncertainty over AI investment continue to threaten growth.
Fifty-six per cent of chief economists surveyed expect the global outlook to remain stable or improve over the next year, a marked improvement from May, when 89% expected conditions to weaken. However, confidence remains limited. Ninety-seven per cent cite geopolitical conflict as a major source of uncertainty, 58% anticipate asset-price corrections and only 25% expect global economic resilience to improve.
According to Attilio Di Battista, Head of Economic Growth and Transformation at the World Economic Forum, fiscal support was crucial in managing successive crises but is unlikely to provide the same level of support going forward.
Resilience is instead expected to depend increasingly on flexible supply chains, technological innovation and adaptation in energy markets.
The United States and China are viewed as best positioned to withstand future shocks.
- AI adoption is expected to increase, with 97% of respondents forecasting greater use and 69% expecting meaningful productivity gains.
- Seventy-eight per cent believe data-centre investment will account for a significant share of global growth, but 79% anticipate substantial opposition from local communities.
- Sixty-one per cent do not expect data-centre investment to generate significant global employment, while majorities expect it to increase electricity (78%) and water (58%) prices.
- Sixty-nine per cent expect Chinese large language models to catch up with US counterparts within the next 12 months.
- Geoeconomic fragmentation is also expected to increase, with 77% forecasting greater fragmentation, 55% anticipating higher US tariffs and 43% higher European tariffs.
- Two-thirds expect global trade volumes to increase, while 83% anticipate higher Chinese exports to markets outside the United States.
The United States is expected to remain the most favourable business environment for multinational companies, followed by South-East Asia and Europe. India falls to fourth place, and China remains fifth.
Growth prospects have improved in most regions but remain uneven. India, South-East Asia, Central Asia and the United States receive the strongest assessments, while China’s outlook has weakened. Europe has improved modestly but remains the weakest region, with 61% expecting weak or very weak growth.
Monetary policy is also expected to diverge. Tighter policy is anticipated in Japan (70%), the euro area (53%) and the United States (42%), while 49% expect looser policy in China. Around one-third of economists expect unemployment to rise in the United States, China and Europe.
Cost-of-living pressures are expected to persist, particularly for food (88%), electricity (83%) and transport (77%). Most economists expect real incomes to stagnate or fall across regions, although more than 60% expect incomes to rise in South-East Asia and India. Governments are expected to favour broad measures such as tax reductions on essential goods (60%), consumption subsidies (54%) and price caps (50%), while fewer expect tax cuts for low-income households (36%) or targeted cash transfers (26%).
The report is based on consultations and surveys with chief economists from the public and private sectors, conducted by the World Economic Forum’s Centre for the New Economy and Society. The survey was conducted from 4 to 20 August 2026.
Read the full Chief Economists’ Outlook. Follow the Sustainable Development Impact Meetings 2026 here and on social media using #SDIM26.
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