Quick Read
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Rosenblatt initiated SNDK with a Buy and $2,400 target, arguing AI workloads are repricing NAND flash from commodity storage into critical infrastructure.
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SanDisk has locked in at least $93.9 billion in signed NBM agreements covering roughly 65% of fiscal 2028 production with four-plus years of visibility.
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SNDK trades at just 8x forward earnings despite a 699% year-to-date rally and a fiscal 2028 EPS consensus of $265.
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Rosenblatt analyst Kevin Cassidy initiated coverage of Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) with a Buy rating and a $2,400 price target, arguing that AI workloads are transforming NAND flash from a commodity into critical computing infrastructure. The call arrives after a blockbuster fiscal 2026 in which Sandisk stock has rallied 698.69% year to date. For long-term investors, the initiation frames NAND as a structural AI beneficiary rather than a cyclical trade.
Analyst’s Case for a Repriced NAND Cycle
Cassidy told clients that new AI compute platforms create an opportunity to reposition NAND “from a commodity storage medium to a more system-critical component of AI infrastructure,” with expanding model sizes and data-intensive inference prioritizing density, performance, endurance and supply certainty over lowest price.
He credits Sandisk’s BiCS8 and BiCS10 platforms for delivering density gains with fewer 3D layers than competitors, backed by a 25-year manufacturing partnership with Kioxia. The $2,400 price target is set at 10 times his fiscal 2028 earnings estimate, and he argues that New Business Model (NBM) agreements with eight of the largest NAND customers could cover roughly 65% of fiscal 2028 production.
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Company Snapshot: A Data Center Growth Engine
Sandisk, spun off from Western Digital in February 2025, closed fiscal Q4 2026 with revenue of $8.965 billion, up 371.59% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS of $39.25 against a $33.28 consensus. Data center revenue reached $2.977 billion, and the full-year data center segment expanded 437% year over year.
Management said data center represented 38% of the portfolio exiting fiscal 2026, versus roughly 12% of bits a year earlier. CEO David Goeckeler called NAND “a critical component of the AI architecture” and cited more than four years of demand visibility through NBMs, with total expected revenue from signed agreements of at least $93.9 billion assuming floor pricing.
Why the Rosenblatt Call Matters Now
Sandisk trades at roughly 8x forward earnings, a striking multiple given fiscal 2028 EPS consensus of $264.72 and a $2,125.09 average analyst target. Cassidy’s $2,400 target sits above that consensus and aligns with management’s own fiscal 2028-to-2030 framework of mid-to-high-teens revenue growth, roughly 80% non-GAAP gross margin and 50% adjusted free-cash-flow margin.
The company estimates NAND industry revenue will exceed $300 billion in calendar 2026 and approach $500 billion in 2027, with bits expected to remain on allocation beyond calendar 2027. A $14 billion buyback authorization and a net cash balance sheet reinforce the capital-return story.
What the Sandisk Stock Setup Means for Your Portfolio
The analyst upgrade lands after a 22.16% one-week move in Sandisk stock, so entry timing matters. Retirement-focused investors should weigh contractual NBM visibility against genuine risks flagged by management, including market-pricing swings in non-NBM business, consumer softness, and reliance on the Kioxia relationship. The Rosenblatt price target raised the bar on where NAND could re-rate, and it warrants a closer look for investors researching AI infrastructure exposure beyond the obvious names (we reverse-engineered what the biggest tech winners looked like early in a free playbook here: The Next Nvidia Playbook).
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