No Wild Card series has tighter odds than Cubs vs. Padres.
San Diego is the home team, which is enough for the bookies at DraftKings Sportsbook to install the Padres as a -120 favorite over Chicago.
But in reality, this is a coin flip.
That shouldn’t surprise anyone, as the Padres (91-71) finished just two games above the Cubs (89-63) in the regular season.
The odds for Game 1 are similarly poised, with San Diego coming in as a slight -131 favorite with Michael King on the mound.
Chicago, which will start Matthew Boyd, is +108 to win Tuesday, and the total is set at 7.5 runs.
Cubs vs. Padres Game 1 odds, picks
We tend to associate the opening game of a playoff series with pitching. Teams tend to deploy their ace in Game 1, and that usually leads to tighter contests and lower totals.
Not in this case.
Neither King nor Boyd pitched like the stalwarts we’ll see in other matchups Tuesday nights, and they each have a weakness that can be picked apart by the opposing lineup.
As well as King induces weak contact, the 31-year-old really struggles to generate whiffs, and he also has issues filling up the zone.
King ranked in the 38th percentile in strikeout rate, and was in the 40th percentile in walk percentage.
Those numbers are worrisome against a Cubs lineup that was tied for the MLB lead in walk rate and was seventh-best when it came to strikeout rate.
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The concern for Boyd is that he’s unlikely to go out and completely dominate a lineup, especially one that was solid across the board in 2026.
The southpaw doesn’t rack up strikeouts, and his batted-ball data grades out as average.
Both of these pitchers were able to eat up innings, but that strength gets diminished in the postseason when managers are quick with the hook.
We are likely to see plenty of pitchers’ duels this postseason, but I’ll bet against this being one of them.
The Play: Over 7.5 runs (+100, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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