One Nation steadies within striking range of lagging Queensland Labor

One Nation’s support at a state level in Queensland has steadied to be within striking distance of a lagging Labor, as minor parties take a further bite from major counterparts at the election cycle’s halfway mark.

But the Crisafulli LNP remains the clear favourite, with primary vote support of 32 per cent, the latest two-month Resolve Political Monitor conducted for this masthead shows.

Personal ratings also reveal Premier David Crisafulli again extending his lead over Opposition Leader Steven Miles, despite a second straight narrowing of his still significant lead as preferred premier.

This month marks two years since Crisafulli’s party swept to power for the first time in more than a decade, with the milestone looming for both leaders as a turning point towards the 2028 election.

At its peak earlier in the year, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party briefly level-pegged with Labor at a state level of 24 per cent.

In this latest snapshot, One Nation’s share rose from 20 per cent to 21 per cent, within the 3 per cent margin of error, amid a focus on federal matters and looming state elections in Victoria and NSW.

Small lifts for the Greens (one percentage point, to 11 per cent) and independents (one percentage point, to 7 per cent) have driven non-major parties to 44 per cent of primary vote support.

Miles’ net likeability remained the same at -6, as Crisafulli’s lifted from +16 to +20. Crisafulli’s preferred premier support remained at 41 per cent, with Miles’ lifting two points to 24 per cent.

Resolve director Jim Reed said overall, the vote position had been relatively stable across the year, outside the slow gains of One Nation.

“Crisafulli still achieves quite healthy personal ratings, so there’s no sign the electorate have tired of him during his first term,” Reed said.

The results come from two waves of polling conducted with registered voters from September 1 to 5, and October 6 to 10, for a total sample size of 868.

Across that period, the government has continued to face pressure over its management of the state’s Child Safety system and was hit with Queensland’s first credit rating downgrade in almost two decades.

While Miles faced publicly aired, but anonymous, criticisms of his leadership and concerns in the media about a clear path for a replacement this month, he is not yet facing an imminent threat.

Labor’s primary vote support sits lower than it did in 2012, when the party was reduced to just seven seats. The LNP’s is about 10 percentage points lower than its election result of 42 per cent.

While scrutiny of One Nation’s policies and party organisation has increased with its ascendance in polling nationwide this year, this is yet to translate into an explicit focus on Queensland state politics.

State-level support for the party in Hanson’s home state had briefly passed the 22.6 per cent result achieved at her breakthrough 1998 Queensland election, which took the party from 0 to 11 seats.

The party currently has no sitting MPs in Queensland, despite its state branch website still listing Stephen Andrew as the member for Mirani. Andrew was dumped from the party by Hanson before the 2024 election.

The next state election will be held in late October 2028. While Crisafulli has repeatedly reiterated his pledge to return optional preferential voting, the change is yet to be enacted.

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