This year’s El Niño, variously prefixed with “super”, “super-duper”, or even “Godzilla”, did what a strong El Niño does — play havoc with India’s southwest monsoon (SWM) season. But unlike those in the historical past, like the one that contributed to a devastating famine in 1877 during the British Raj era, this year’s El Niño may do nothing of that sort.
India is well placed with its foodgrain stocks — a massive pool of 602 lakh metric tonnes of wheat and rice — three times the prescribed buffer stock. Food will not be a problem even if India experiences a rare second successive failure of SWM season in 202, as a section of meteorologists fear. India’s real problem is drinking water supply in states that ended up with serious deficit rains and irrigation for agriculture.
The degree of difficulties may vary between states, but the fact that around 40 per cent of India’s landmass spread over 15 of the 36 states and Union Territories received less than normal rainfall will remain a matter of concern. The Indian monsoon’s performance, usually gleaned from numbers, has been well below normal. As per the IMD, as on October 30, the official end date of SWM season, 313 districts out of India’s 741 were either in the deficient or large deficient categories meaning they got 20 per cent below normal rainfall, or even less.
Understanding what a monsoon has done is not usually an easy task, especially in a year like the current one when some parts of India, such as Odisha which experienced one of its wettest rainy seasons this year, or Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand which received more than normal rain.
It was a different story in the Northeast region with significant deficits, as was the case with Bihar, and in the southern peninsular states. Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu, all logged deficits, while to the west, Maharashtra too suffered. There is still hope that some good may come for the southern states if the northeast monsoon (NEM) brings rains to this part of the country.
Statistical studies of deficient and excess rainfall have their place, and they help the government determine drought declarations that triggers a set of actions to alleviate the suffering that accompanies a drought. But the numbers will not mean anything unless the states step up to contain the costs of a failed monsoon. This requires assistance from the Centre, which makes drought, in even a single state, a national challenge.
Tackling the latest drought will be the immediate challenge for the bureaucracy, but what lies ahead could be even more challenging with forecasts of a hotter summer giving the country a fever of sorts, preceded by a warmer than normal winter, amidst farming challenges in the already impacted states.
The northeast monsoon is said to be round the corner, but whether it will offer a bounty or a deficit remains to be seen. Right now, the challenge before the country is to ensure everyone gets their water, which is not expected to be an easy task, and to see that livelihoods are not lost, not to speak of lives themselves, because of bureaucratic lethargy.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: deccanchronicle.com
