How Kyle Larson can lose the NASCAR Cup championship at Homestead

November 8, 2026

A third NASCAR Cup Series championship is directly ahead of Kyle Larson, and he just needs to stay out of trouble at Homestead-Miami Speedway. However, he can still lose it if he’s not careful.

Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin face a very narrow path to the title, but there is still a path there.

Larson leads Bell by 67 points and Hamlin by 70, but a driver can score a maximum of 76 points at Homestead, while every starter is awarded one point. Because Larson holds the tiebreaker over both drivers, nine points guarantees him the championship.

For context, keep in mind that Hamlin has never scored more than 43 points over Larson in any race this year (Indianapolis), while Bells’ largest gain was 46 point swing at Phoenix.

Hamlin starts the race from second on the grid, with Larson fourth and Bell sixth.

Here’s what each contender needs at Homestead:

How Kyle Larson can secure the title

If Larson scores eight stage points, he guarantees himself at least nine total points and clinches the championship. He can do that by finishing third in Stage 1 or 2, or as low as seventh in both stages. Larson can clinch the title by finishing 28th or higher, regardless of stage pointsThe fastest-lap bonus reduces either requirement by one point, meaning seven stage points or a 29th-place finish would also be enough after securing fastest lapLarson holds the championship tiebreaker over both Bell and Hamlin

Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

What Christopher Bell must do if Larson falters

Bell must win the race and score at least 14 of a possible 20 stage points, or 13 stage points plus the fastest-lap bonusBell will be eliminated from contention if he doesn’t finish eighth or higher in Stage 1None of this matters if Larson finishes 28th or higher, or scores at least eight stage points

What Denny Hamlin must do if Larson falters

Hamlin must win the race and score at least 17 of a possible 20 stage points, or 16 stage points plus the fastest-lap bonusHamlin will be eliminated from contention if he doesn’t finish fifth or higher in Stage 1None of this matters if Larson finishes 28th or higher, or scores at least eight stage points

Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin

How to earn points

A race win awards 55 pointsRunner-up finisher scores 35 points, decreasing by one for every position until 36th gets one point36th – 40th all score one point eachA stage win awards 10 points, decreasing by one for every position until tenth gets oneThe fastest lap awards one bonus pointRead Also: