Aakar Patel | From ‘Indo-Pacific’ To Pacific: India To Pay Price For Bid To Play Off US, China

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Last week, on June 17, it was reported that the United States had renamed the Indo-Pacific Command back as the US Pacific Command. This was announced by the US department of war, and was accompanied by an incorrect map of Kashmir. The same day, the US President met our Prime Minister at the G-7 summit in France and said that Narendra Modi is “a very tough negotiator… You look at this man. He’s the most beautiful-looking man. He looks so nice, like an angel. But actually, he’s as tough as a killer… But he looks so good. So, he gets you by surprise. There are few people like this”. These two June 17 stories are somewhat related. Here is how.

In February 2018, during Donald Trump’s first term, America wrote its strategy for the region, which it began to call the “Indo-Pacific”. The aim was “to maintain US strategic primacy … while preventing China from establishing new, illiberal spheres of influence”. The Americans wanted India to “act as a counterbalance to China”. This “desired end state” the US sought was to be “India’s preferred partner on security issues”, and “the two cooperate to preserve maritime security and counter China’s influence”. Over a couple of pages, the US lays out the plan of how it will make India a “Major Defence Partner” and how “a strong Indian military (would) effectively collaborate with the United States”. The document lays out also what is intended to be done with China: prevent it from “harming US competitiveness” and “prevent China’s acquisition of military and strategic capabilities”.

Why was India signing up for this? It is not known. With no discussion in Parliament, with no interviews to the media and no press conferences, with no reference to this in his manifestos, Prime Minister Modi took India into a strategic partnership and military alliance with the US against China. In February 2020, during Donald Trump’s famous visit to India and days before the Ladakh crisis began, Mr Modi committed India to this agreement, essentially ranged against China, and began to execute it.

On October 27, 2020, during the visit of the US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, India signed the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA). It would help India access American intelligence to improve the accuracy of the Indian Army’s missiles and armed drones. Another agreement signed was the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA). It allowed the two nations’ militaries to replenish from each other’s bases, and access supplies, spare parts and services from each other’s land facilities, airbases and ports.

Signing the BECA pact in New Delhi, Mr Pompeo attacked China directly: “I am glad to say that the United States and India are taking steps to strengthen cooperation against all manner of threats and not just those posed by the Communist Party of China.” Then US defence secretary Mike Esper said: “We stand shoulder to shoulder, in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific for all, particularly in light of increasing aggression and destabilising activities by China.”

S. Jaishankar and Rajnath Singh, who were standing next to Mr Pompeo and Mr Esper, did not name China. Mr Rajnath Singh’s prepared remarks (which were later changed) had reference to this line, which was later deleted: “Excellencies, in the area of defence, we are challenged by reckless aggression on our northern borders.” Exhibiting the usual incompetence, this change was not given to the Indian translator in English, who read out the original text and the Americans released it. When the paper on America’s strategy had been declassified three months later, China said that “its content only serves to expose the malign intention of the United States to use its Indo-Pacific strategy to suppress and contain China and undermine regional peace and stability”. And that “the US side is obsessed with ganging up, forming small cliques and resorting to despicable means such as wedge-driving, which fully exposed its true face as a trouble-maker, undermining regional peace, stability, solidarity and cooperation”. India did not react to the release of the document.

Another pact, signed weeks after America’s Indo-Pacific strategy was written up, was the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA). It allowed India access to encrypted communications equipment and systems so that Indian and US military commanders, and the aircraft and ships of the two countries, could communicate through secure networks. BECA, LEMOA and COMCASA completed a troika of “foundational pacts” for deep military cooperation between the two countries. COMCASA was signed in September 2018, five months after Mr Modi travelled to Wuhan to meet President Xi. There he had signed an agreement on April 28, 2018, that India and China would not be rivals but would cooperate with each other. They would “push forward bilateral trade and investment”. The problem, obvious to anyone, was that, whether he fully understood it or not, Mr Modi was hunting with the hounds and running with the hares. At the same time as he was holding hands with President Xi, Mr Modi was also winking at President Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy to contain China. Mr Xi’s calculated response was to activate the Ladakh border so that India’s military focus and resources would remain on land and not the sea. We have seen the effects of that in the last six years, with a border that remains tense and militarised and a trade balance totally in China’s favour that we cannot correct despite our best efforts.

In his second term, Mr Trump lost interest in his Indo-Pacific strategy. The headline announcing the dropping of the name was only the final, symbolic end to it. The question is: what did we gain from signing up for this casual adventure that was so expensive? The answer is, of course, in the second story from June 17: we got patted on the head and were praised.

The writer is the chair of Amnesty International India.

Twitter: @aakar_patel

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