Aurora CFO says 30,000 driverless trucks by 2030 isn’t as far-fetched as it sounds

Autonomous vehicle technology company Aurora told investors last week that it expects to have more than 30,000 self-driving trucks on the road generating $5 billion in annual revenue by the end of 2030 — an audacious plan considering it expects to end 2026 with just 200 driverless trucks and an $80 million revenue run rate.

CFO David Maday contends the seemingly outsized target isn’t as large or as out of reach as it might appear.

“While 30,000 kind of feels like a lot — and it does in the autonomy space for sure — in terms of trucks relative to the overall market, it’s kind of pretty small,” he told TechCrunch in a recent interview, adding that the four major truck manufacturers produce anywhere between 250,000 and 300,000 new trucks a year. “I don’t think it’s aspirational,” he added, “I think we can do it.”

Investors haven’t exactly embraced Aurora’s 2030 vision. Shares have continued to slide since the company’s annual analyst and investor day on September 23. On Monday, shares closed down 12.42%, to $5.29.

But investors have time to come around and, according to Maday, the big “unlock” for Aurora starts in 2027 and accelerates from there. The company expects to go from 200 driverless trucks at the end of 2026 to more than 1,000 a year later.

Today, Aurora operates what it calls a transportation-as-a-service business — a proof-of-concept model that it plans to limit to about 500 trucks. It owns and operates the self-driving trucks and charges its customers, including Detmar Logistics, Hirschbach, McLane, and Werner about a $2 per mile, a rate that includes a fuel surcharge.

That works out to roughly the same rates as other carriers’ typical pricing. The real shift — and the real savings, Maday says — will happen next year as when Aurora begins moving to a driver-as-a-service model. Instead of Aurora owning the trucks, customers will buy the self-driving trucks and pay Aurora a per-mile subscription fee for the self-driving technology, which the company expects to be about $0.85. Under this model, the customers will own and maintain the truck, while Aurora maintains the self-driving system and its accompanying hardware.

Moving the trucks off Aurora’s balance sheet is critical if the company wants to scale — and it’s likely what investors are paying attention to. The company said it expects to reach breakeven gross margins (meaning revenue would cover the direct costs of running the trucks) on a run-rate basis in the first half of 2027 with around 500 trucks on the road.

The next big leap comes at the end of 2027 with Aurora’s third-generation hardware— the sensors, computers, and other equipment that let its trucks drive themselves — which will be mass-produced autonomous vehicle hardware built by its partner, Aumovio (formerly known as Continental). Aumovio isn’t just engineering and manufacturing the hardware kit; the company is also financing it for Aurora — easing the financial burden on the self-driving truck company. Aumovio will also service and repair the kits for customers.

Aurora plans to expand its operations at the same time. By 2030, the company expects to grow beyond a few states in the South to the vast majority of the continental U.S., according to Maday.

“By 2028, I expect that our cost structures are going to be really outstanding, that’s why you see our gross margin starting to take off …” Maday said. “Once you get to that point, I think going into ride hailing is fine,” he said, confirming that Aurora still plans to eventually enter the robotaxi market.