Australia’s $11 billion upgrade to keep subs afloat while navy waits for AUKUS

Australia’s ageing Collins-class submarines will receive $11 billion worth of upgrades starting next month, as the navy extends their lifespan while waiting for the arrival of its first nuclear submarines from the United States.

The Collins-class submarines, which have had a troubled history over their lifetime, have to be upgraded because the first of the US-built Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines are not due to arrive until about 2032, and senior Trump administration and Pentagon figures have aired reservations about the pact with Australia and Britain.

Last month, a UK parliament review expressed grave reservations about whether Britain was capable of building Australia’s bespoke SSN-AUKUS class submarines by the early 2040s, noting that “cracks are already beginning to show when it comes to funding”.

Earlier this month, as Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi visited Australia, former senior defence official Richard Gray urged the federal government to consider leasing conventional diesel submarines from Japan as a plan B to avoid a capability gap.

There is also concern within government that despite US President Donald Trump’s endorsement of the submarine pact last year, there are key figures within the administration, such as Defence undersecretary Elbridge Colby, who have opposed the deal.

Defence Minister Richard Marles criticised the former Coalition government for estimating, in its 2020 force structure plan, that the cost of the life-of-type extensions to the Collins boats would be about $6 billion, rather than the more realistic $11 billion.

The need to extend the life of the Collins class has been reviewed by successive governments and predates the decision to sign the AUKUS deal with the US and Britain.

Marles announced the extension on Tuesday. It will add up to 10 years to the boats’ lifespan, and will include cutting open the vessels in dry dock to upgrade critical weapons systems.

In 2024, the government flagged that it would extend the submarines’ lives for another decade, but it will now scale back the upgrades to what it calls “a conditions-based sustainment approach”.

“These decisions reaffirm the Albanese government’s commitment to keeping the Collins class a potent and highly capable strike and deterrent capability today, and for years to come,” Marles said during a speech to the Lowy Institute think tank.

“Extending the life of all six Collins-class submarines is critical to maintaining that edge as we transition the navy from conventional to nuclear-powered submarines.”

HMAS Farncomb, which is one of the oldest of the six submarines, will be the first boat to get an overhaul.

After the speech, Marles said it was “unthinkable” that Australia could be left without long-range submarine capability, and $368 billion AUKUS deal was the solution once the Collins-class submarines expired.

“We don’t really have a choice but to do this,” he told the audience during a question and answer session. “I mean, to concede that Australia would not operate that platform would be to really reduce our sovereignty. It is far and away the most significant capability that we have.

“There seems to be a sort of almost an incredulity about the idea that this could really happen, but the truth of the matter is that AUKUS is now being pursued with vigour by each of the three participating nations.”

Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior fellow Richard Gray, who wrote the Hedging Our Bets report on the Japanese submarine option, said announcement “means it will like take longer, cost more and deliver a reduced submarine capability”.

“It might seem unusual that the cost goes up so much, but that increase in cost is almost certainly due to greatly increased maintenance on largely unchanged boats.”

University of Western Australia adjunct professor Jennifer Parker said the upgrade was necessary, but “the Collins will have reduced capability, they already do, and it will be used to train submariners for the Virginia class. [The Collins’] ability to operate far from Australian shores will be diminished.”

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