Barnaby Joyce is already talking down One Nation’s chances in Victoria

One Nation’s senior recruit Barnaby Joyce has downplayed the party’s Victorian election chances and pivoted to talking up next year’s NSW poll, even as colourful Victorian leader Warren Pickering claims the party will govern in its own right.

Joyce told this masthead that “those who wish to disparage us want Victoria to be the litmus test of how One Nation is going”.

“NSW will be [the litmus test],” Joyce said. “The reality is [Victorian] Labor has been atrocious. It’s very likely they’ll poll very badly and preference flows will be of great assistance to the Libs, because I’d suggest Labor preferences will swing towards the Libs.

“In so many instances, who comes second determines who comes first. This is not a reflection of how One Nation is going nationally. It’s a reflection of how preference flows work.”

Joyce’s frank appraisal of the state of play in Victoria contrasts with the message of One Nation’s top Victorian candidate Warren Pickering, who has been speaking this week about a “One Nation government”.

“We are not going to engage in speculation about preferences… One Nation is here to win,” Pickering told reporters on Monday. “We will get this done, whatever the disposition of the parliament.”

The split reflects nervousness in One Nation’s federal ranks about a poor showing in Victoria.

“They’re talking down expectations,” said Antony Green, who analysed election night results on the ABC for decades. Green predicted One Nation would win a maximum of about half a dozen lower house seats.

Pickering, a former soldier who admitted to drug use earlier in life, this week failed to cite the cash rate in an interview on conservative outlet News24.

On Nine’s Today show, he stood by a candidate who promoted the appearance of a member of a group promoting conspiracy theories about the Port Arthur massacre and September 11 attacks. Asked about One Nation candidate Mark Nicholson’s claim that a One Nation government would jail former premiers Daniel Andrews and Jacinta Allan by Christmas, a comment the party shared on its social media pages, Pickering claimed Nicholson was taken out of context.

Joyce’s comments could help avoid embarrassment if the party fails to pick up many seats in an election which, along with March’s NSW poll, will help shape expectations of One Nation’s prospects at a federal election due by mid 2028.

Green said One Nation’s primary vote had drifted into the low-20s – too low to get the most votes in many electorates – as conservatives in Victoria swing their support behind the Coalition in the belief that they were most likely to defeat Labor.

One Nation will probably finish second in many rural and regional seats, Green suggests, but fail to win because Labor preferences would help elect a Coalition candidate – likely a National.

In the cities, Green predicted One Nation would finish second in some traditional working-class areas, but a lower Liberal vote would mean that in some cases One Nation would not gain enough preferences to get ahead of Labor.

Even if it struggles in the lower house – highlighting the challenge of insurgent parties converting primary votes into single-member seat wins – One Nation is still likely to win a swag of upper house seats that do not require preferences, handing it the leverage to drag any Coalition government to the right.

NSW Labor Premier Chris Minns in recent weeks cast One Nation, rather than the ailing state Coalition opposition, as his main rival. Much like South Australia’s election in which Premier Peter Malinauskas triumphed while One Nation surged, Minns is considered in little danger of losing, tempting discontented voters to lodge a protest vote with One Nation instead of looking to the traditional alternative.

NSW Labor officials told MPs late last month that the party could lose more than a dozen seats and be bundled out of government in one term, delivering the grim predictions in a series of closed-door briefings to ram home the threat posed by One Nation.

Joyce said: “NSW does not have the catastrophic Labor government Victoria has had so the voting dynamic will be different, and you’ll have many seats where the Libs will come third.”

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