Belgium’s performance in the Group Stage was below average, and now they must fight to advance to the Round of 16 against a resilient Senegal team.
Entering the tournament, they were ranked 9th in the FIFA rankings, with 40/1 odds of winning the World Cup, after a disappointing 2022 in which they failed to advance past the group stage.
Apart from a 5-1 victory against New Zealand, Belgium failed to score in its first two matches, drawing with Iran and Egypt. These unexpected results left them tied with Egypt for first place in Group G.
All hope isn’t lost for the Red Devils. Kevin De Bruyne remains a stalwart in attack, while Romelu Lukaku, the team’s all-time leading goal scorer, is also a steady contributor.
Senegal played knockout stage winners France and Norway very well in two losses before beating Iraq 5-0 to secure a place in the Round of 32. Led by captain Sadio Mané, Pape Thiaw’s team is determined and relentless.
Oddsmakers suggest the Lions of Teranga could topple what’s left of Belgium’s Golden Generation.
Both teams enter on the plus side of the moneyline odds, with Senegal +260 to pull off the upset. Belgium is -166 favorite to qualify for the next round, and they are +120 to win outright in 90 minutes.
Belgium vs. Senegal prediction, best bets
Senegal has advanced to the knockout stage in three of their four World Cup tournaments and has some experience throughout their lineup to show for it.
Ismaïla Sarr, Iliman Ndiaye and Pape Gueye complement Mané, forming a versatile group that could challenge Belgium’s susceptible back line. Idrissa Gueye is the heartbeat of the team, hustling and finding himself everywhere on both ends of the pitch.
Based on the eye test, Senegal’s 1-2 record in Group I may force naysayers to turn the other cheek, but losing to the proverbial favorite, France, and pushing Norway to the brink should not be seen as a bad thing.
The only downside to those defeats was that stars Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland each scored twice, helping their teams secure victories. Unlike their AFCON rivals Morocco, Thiaw’s group does not have defense as a calling card, having conceded an average of two goals per game in group play.
Given Belgium’s underperforming offensive outings against Egypt and Iran, there is plenty to consider here when handicapping.
They sleepwalked and trailed 1-0 to Egypt early, then tied the game in the second half. Despite dominating possession with 70 percent, they could not score against Iran. There seems to be a hunch that they can flip a switch and become the team from 2018 that placed third in Russia.
But aside from De Bruyne, Lukaku, and Leandro Trossard, who had a brace against New Zealand, who can Rudi Garcia trust to generate big scoring plays? Jeremy Doku returns to the lineup, and maybe this is the game when he finally puts it all together.
Belgium also holds a clear edge in goalkeeping, with Real Madrid standout Thibaut Courtois manning the goal in his fourth World Cup appearance. Senegal starter Edouard Mendy is expected to miss his second straight match after a knee injury sustained against Norway.
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This closely contested match could go either way, with underdogs making early waves in the Round of 32—Paraguay and Morocco having already pulled off notable upsets.
Senegal’s battle-tested mentality against stronger opponents gives them an advantage, while Belgium’s recent inconsistency might cost them yet another chance on the big stage.
The Play: Senegal to qualify for next round (+146, FanDuel)
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Mike Turay is a sports journalist and editor who closely follows the NBA, NFL, college sports and UFC. He has demonstrated expertise in both NBA and NFL player prop bets for nearly three years. Mike is also highly knowledgeable about the sportsbook offer landscape, frequently trying and reviewing the latest apps and sites.
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