Bills at Vikings Monday Night Football betting odds, picks and predictions: Best bets, player props

We’ve got a cliche combo for Monday Night Football.

First, the Bills’ irresistible force of an offense takes on the immovable object that is the Vikings defense. 

Second, in the deepest pessimistic recesses of sports evaluation, you might have heard someone say “they’re one injury away from being a good team.”

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In college football, due to modern financial commitments to recruits and transfers, teams stick with an underperformer at a key position because of what they’ve invested in that player. Then, when they finally give up, turning away from a quarterback they’ve committed to, it seems like half the time the replacement does a better job. That’s how little anyone knows about the pool of players.

In the NFL, usually the drop-off is massive between what a starting quarterback makes and their backup — in the tens of millions of dollars annually. That’s not the case for the Vikings’ salary matrix, as Kyler Murray accounts for a cap-hit of just over a million dollars, and Carson Wentz actually makes more, at $3 million. 

So, when Murray was ruled out of Monday night’s game with a hamstring, and the betting line progressively shifted from Bills -3.5 down to -3, it made economic sense, at least.

Buffalo Bills (-3, 44.5) at Minnesota Vikings

By individual game market rating, the Bills are the highest rated team in the NFL (about a half-point better than the 49ers). Meaning, on a neutral site, there’s no team they wouldn’t be a favorite against. 

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At 6-1 overall and 5-2 against the spread, that might not seem all that controversial for the Bills, but it’s an unusual status for a team in the bottom-five of the league in defensive metrics like adjusted Weighted EPA/Play and Success Rate. 

The Vikings are also 6-1, and depending on the number you grade them on in Week 7, they’re 5-2 ATS as well, but while bettors respect defense, they love a team that can score. So, Minnesota never got near the power rating of Buffalo’s, even while undefeated, and the Vikings have taken a hit in perception after losing their first game last week. 

In Week 2, the Vikings were actually rated as a below-average team when Wentz started in the rain in Chicago. While the conditions were terrible for efficient quarterback play, adding his relief appearance in Week 1, Wentz has the 22nd-best EPA/Play, compared to Murray’s 35th (out 46 qualifying quarterbacks), and Wentz has been in Kevin O’Connell’s offense for two seasons now.

With an opening line of Bills -3.5, oddsmakers were essentially ready to say “enough is enough” when it comes to Murray, having just seen him struggle in Detroit, often frustrating star receiver Justin Jefferson. 

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Murray had a chance to get the Vikings offense going against the Dolphins, Colts, and Lions, but couldn’t do it. Against the Bills, Wentz will have the opportunity to take the QB1 job, and it should function as well as it has all season. 

Meanwhile, like most quarterbacks, Josh Allen’s numbers decrease against the blitz, and that’s what you can expect from Brian Flores’ unit.

In the end, you’ve got a great offense and bad defense travelling to take on a great defense and an offense that is capable of at least being average. Except the former is rated at the top of the league, while the latter is considered just better than mediocre, and should also have a best-in-class home-field advantage.  

Bet: Vikings +3

Player props

Josh Allen under 20.5 pass completions (-125, FanDuel)

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Like a game of “Battleship,” if you call the right number, big plays can be found against the Vikings defense, catching them on a coverage break on an all-out blitz. If Allen strikes on a few of those, he won’t need to accumulate pass completions, in the same way Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield clicked on exactly 50% of their pass attempts when facing this unit. 

The Lions used a strategy of running right at Minnesota with 34 total carries between Jahmyr Gibbs and Sione Vaki. 

Of course, Allen could use his legs to try to make the Vikings pay for not getting all the way home, as well.

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Add in that the Vikings could have some decent time of possession against the Bills defense, and we can only envision Allen going over this number if he’s compelled to throw close to 40 times — an unlikely game script.

Ty Johnson over 14.5 receiving yards (-115, Bet365)

If the Vikings defense is doing its thing, the Bills will face a ton of third downs, many in passing situations. That’s where they turn to Ty Johnson in the quick-game. 

Johnson has caught all 15 of his targets from Allen this season, often finding his way to a double-digit reception because either teams aren’t aware he’s on the field and dangerous, or they’re playing off the line of scrimmage. 

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The Vikings line up at the line of scrimmage and often retreat, so the Bills should look to catch them backpedalling by using Johnson out of the backfield.

Carson Wentz over 209.5 passing yards (-113, DraftKings)

Minnesota could win convincingly, but when they do it’s because the defense stalls out the opposing offense. The Vikings offense isn’t likely to push out to a lead and feel like they can shut things down. Wentz should be able to connect on a few deep shots against the Bills, and the pressure of seeing Allen on the other side should keep the urgency up late, going for the kill shot to keep the ball out of his hands.

Anytime TD scorers

Josh Allen (-120, DraftKings)

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An anytime touchdown bet on Josh Allen, at this price, in each game of the season, would have grossed six units to just 1.25 lost, as Allen has already tumbled into the end zone nine times in seven games.  

With 14 last year, you would think that the betting market would be aware that he’s the Bills’ primary goal-line option, but his season-long rushing touchdown line was 10.5. That’s all you need to know about how much the betting market has underbought Allen’s scoring prowess — and still hasn’t adjusted.

Keon Coleman (+425, Bet365)

From further away from the goal line, the Bills may need to win some 1-on-1 matchups on the outside — and that’s the role Coleman plays in this offense. 

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In all but two games this season, Coleman has led the receiving corps in snaps, as the big threat on “go” routes, which is in keeping with the hope that he becomes the true No. 1 he was projected to be. With a touchdown in three straight games before last week, Coleman’s odds are too long, even against this defense.

Ty Johnson (+850, DraftKings)

You can build a little long-shot portfolio with Coleman, Johnson and a deep pull from the Vikings roster below, but with Johnson’s explosiveness in the pass-game out of the backfield, he needs to be included at these odds.

Justin Jefferson (+160, FanDuel)

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You could tell the squeaky wheel was getting the grease last week in Detroit, as Kevin O’Connell pushed Murray towards Justin Jefferson in the end zone. However, because of Murray’s inaccuracy, it took a circus catch to get Jefferson’s just his second touchdown since Week 1 (when he caught two from Wentz). 

With a comfy matchup against the Bills’ secondary, and a price that still doubts Jefferson’s status as one of the greats in the game (because of bad QB play the last two seasons), we’ll go with Minnesota’s most likely scorer.

Jordan Addison (+270, Bet365)

If you think Jefferson has had issues connecting with Murray, within the constraints of the Vikings offense, you don’t know the half of it. Literally. Addison’s only caught half of the balls thrown his way this season (to Jefferson’s 70%). 

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If the Minnesota offense finds its way against the Bills, the receiver across from Jefferson should get some favorable matchups, and Addison is a dangerous long-ball threat if the deepest safety gets too interested in what Jefferson’s doing. 

Ben Yurosek (11-1, DraftKings)

Who? 

Back when the Vikings’ offense worked, and even last season when it was a similar struggle, the secondary tight ends (Josh Oliver, Johnny Mundt) often found their number called off of O’Connell’s red-zone playsheet, with nine touchdowns over the last two years.

This year, with so few trips near the goal line, there’s been less opportunity for misdirection. Plus, Oliver’s on IR. 

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Ben Yurosek, in his second year out of Georgia, missed the first four games of the season, but in the three he’s played, he’s been on the field for half the snaps, and has a catch of 10 and 24 yards. He’s worth finishing off our long shot TD portfolio for a few dollars at better than 10-to-1.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.

Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: Sports.yahoo.com