Brazil runoff live updates: world leaders congratulate Lula on historic election win as Bolsonaro refuses to concede

The Kremlin has welcomed Lula’s election victory, saying the leftist president had done “a lot” to develop ties with Russia.

“We welcome Mr Lula’s victory. He does a lot, not only for the development of bilateral relations but also for advancing processes within the framework of Brics,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

Brazil has maintained diplomatic and economic ties with Russia despite Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine four years ago.

Both countries were among the earliest members of Brics (alongside India, China and South Africa), a grouping, established in 2009, that was conceived as a counterweight to western dominance.

Even though Flávio Bolsonaro has lost this election, my colleague Libby Brooks has looked at why the far-right 45-year-old senator struck a chord with so many voters across Brazil:

Evangelical Christianity has expanded across Brazil in recent decades, with church leaders throwing their support behind the socially conservative policies favoured by Bolsanaro Sr and Jr.

Pro-gun Flavio Bolsonaro harnessed voter frustration at chronic levels of urban crime and violence. Despite being embedded in Brazilian politics for decades, he successfully portrayed himself as an anti-establishment outsider, using social media far more effectively than his rival.

And others believe he had significant help: a dozen watchdogs and research groups have published reports alleging that Meta may have favoured the senator’s campaign.

The controversy grew after Brazils’ electoral court ordered Meta not to give the candidates “unequal treatment”, while the company called the allegations “false and unfounded”.

Here is some footage of Lula’s victory speech, in which he thanked the Brazilian youth for rallying support for his cause, and of Bolsonaro refusing to concede defeat as he vows to pursue legal action and have the election result annulled:

It has just gone past 06:15am in Brasília and 09:15am in London, where I am blogging from. Here is a quick recap of the main updates from one of the most significant and bruising elections in Brazilian history:

• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the 80-year-old Brazilian president, has staged a dramatic election comeback, defeating his far-right opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro, to claim a historic fourth term in power.

• Lula secured 51.79% of the votes compared with Bolsonaro’s 48.21%, according to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court – about 4.4m more votes

• Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, refused to accept the election result, and has called for it to be annulled.

• The 45-year-old senator called into question a late-Sunday decision by a Lula-appointed supreme court justice that extended voting by two hours over alleged voter transport irregularities.

• His refusal to concede defeat has echoes of his father’s reaction after losing to Lula in 2022. Jair Bolsonaro never accepted his loss and was later sentenced by the supreme court to 27-years in prison for plotting a coup to remain in power.

• Lula, who highlighted a track record of falling poverty and inequality during his campaign, becomes the first president in Brazilian history to win a fourth term.

• It is also the first time, since Brazil’s return to democracy in 1988, that a candidate who lost the first round of voting went on to overturn the result and win the presidency. Lula’s new term is set to begin on 5 January 2027.

• The leftist president’s victory is a blow for the US president, who had been hoping Bolsonaro would become the latest in a series of pro-Trump leaders to take power in South America.

• Numerous world leaders have congratulated Lula for his dramatic election win, but so far Donald Trump has remained silent.

You can read more in this insightful recap from my colleagues, Tom Phillips and Tiago Rogero:

Amid the cacophony of congratulatory messages, it is notable that we are yet to hear Donald Trump’s reaction to the Brazilian election result.

Lula, a prominent Trump critic, had warned Washington not to interfere in the election and insisted Brazil would “never fit into anyone’s backyard”.

His victory cements Latin America’s most populous country and largest economy as a counterweight to the US, which has enormous influence across the region.

In today’s First Edition newsletter, my colleague Libby Brooks examines the role Trump played in the election. Here is a snippet:

Although Donald Trump did not openly endorse Flávio Bolsonaro, his influence loomed large. Last year, he denounced the supreme court trial of his ally Jair Bolsonaro as a “witch-hunt”, imposing extraordinary 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports as retribution for what he claimed was political persecution.

Lula has styled himself as the country’s defender against Trump’s “colonial” designs. His victory consolidates a multilateral foreign policy and pragmatic approach to relations with the US, China and Russia. He has rejected invitations to join the controversial coalition of Latin American countries conducting military operations against drug cartels alongside the Pentagon, which would have resulted in much greater US involvement on Brazilian soil.

Lula’s win is encouraging for leftwing politicians trying to fight the ascendant right, including in Europe where Spanish prime minster, Pedro Sánchez, is trailing in polls ahead of his November election.

“A great victory for Lula! What has happened in Brazil will happen in Spain. The global progressive comeback has just begun,” Sánchez, one of the few leftist leaders in Europe, posted on X.

Earlier this month, the socialist prime minister, who has been in office since 2018, staked his political future on a snap general election called after rightwing parties torpedoed emergency legislation to tackle the housing crisis.

French President Emmanuel Macron also congratulated his Brazilian counterpart on his re-election, calling for efforts to “strengthen our strategic partnership”.

“France and Brazil have much to build together,” Macron wrote in a post on X, saying their two countries should nurture their friendship “in the service of a fairer world”.

We are seeing more messages of support pour in for Lula after his historic election victory.

China’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Guo Jiakun, was among those to congratulate the president, telling reporters that Beijing was “willing to work with Brazil to continue advancing the building of a China-Brazil community with a shared future.”

Jiakun said that China, which is Brazil’s largest trading partner, “noted” Lula’s victory as was confirmed by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (unlike Bolsonaro who has refused to recognise the result).

As we have been reporting, Flávio Bolsonaro defied opinion polls by securing a narrow lead over the leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of voting held on 4 October. But Lula managed to make a dramatic comeback after reigniting his campaign between the first and second rounds.

The Guardian’s South America correspondent, Tiago Rogero, has looked at how Lula’s campaign gained ground after a massive social media push and enthusiastic street protests rallied support around the incumbent leader. Here is an extract from the report:

Bolsonaro began the runoff campaign with a lead and the support of most other defeated candidates, but instead of growing, he stagnated in the polls while Lula gained support.

Many analysts saw this as the result of part of the population suddenly waking up to the “fear” of a Bolsonaro returning to power, as well as controversies including the fact that the senator is under investigation in two federal police inquiries over alleged corruption and money laundering.

Lula, by contrast, radically changed his digital strategy and benefited from student-led protests across the country, most of which did not even involve the president.

In case you’re just joining us, here is a rundown on what’s happened in Brazil’s presidential election runoff – it is 4am in São Paulo.

• Leftwing president Luiz Inácio Lula da ⁠Silva pulled off a dramatic comeback to defeat far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the second round of the election vote.

• Lula won a historic fourth term on Sunday in a victory – declared by the country’s electoral court – that put the brakes on a wave of rightwing election wins across Latin America.

• Lula defeated Bolsonaro, the son of jailed former president ⁠Jair Bolsonaro, by more than 4 million votes after narrowly losing the first round of voting.

• Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, said it was “impossible to concede the election result” and that his legal team would seek to have the election annulled due to a supreme court ruling that extended voting for two hours.

• Lula, who turns 81 on Tuesday, told supporters in São Paulo after his victory: “We are going to change the way that this country is governed … This election was a defeat for denialism … I want to thank God and to thank you, Brazilian men and women of this country … it was democracy that made this happen.” Vice-president Geraldo Alckmin told the crowd: “You saved Brazilian democracy for the second time.”

• Lula, of the Workers’ party (PT), received 51.79% of the ballots, or 64,256,232 votes. Bolsonaro, of the Liberal party (PL), had 48.21% or 59,826,041. Pollsters said a better-than-expected turnout helped power Lula’s win.

• The victory marks another of his comebacks. Lula was jailed from 2018 to 2019 on corruption charges that were later overturned, paving the way for him to ‌beat Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 election. Jair Bolsonaro was later given a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup to remain in power. He was hoping to be freed and given a role in government had his son won this election.

• Lula’s win is also a blow for Donald Trump that deprives the US president of a major addition to what has been a growing bloc of pro-Trump leaders to take power in Latin America, including in Colombia, Ecuador, Chile and Argentina.

• Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum said of Lula’s win: “Long live democracy, the people of Brazil won.” Cuban president Miguel Díaz-Canel congratulated Lula on “this historic ​victory that ensures ​the continuity of the ​path of peace, sovereignty and social justice embarked upon ​by the ‌Brazilian people ​under your leadership”. EU chief Ursula von der Leyen said: “Democracy and multilateralism have won in Brazil.” Canadian prime minister Mark Carney said the Canada-Brazil “partnership” had flourished and “let’s seize this opportunity to make it even stronger, together”. Other leaders’ reactions can be seen in posts here and here.

• Lula’s reelection win has set up ⁠a test for financial markets, with investors expecting recent bets on a change of government to unwind in a volatile week ahead. November futures for the Brazilian real were down 10% in Asian hours while a Tokyo-listed exchange-traded fund tracking Brazil’s Bovespa index fell nearly 15% in Asia trade.
  
  With staff and agencies

Ursula von der Leyen has praised Lula for his election win and said Europe will “remain by your side for the years to come”.

The head of the European Union said in a message posted on X:

Congratulations to my friend @LulaOficial on his electoral victory. Democracy and multilateralism have won in Brazil. Europe’s partnership with Brazil is thriving.

We will remain by your side for the years to come. Together we will keep working closely for free and open trade. A rules-based global order. And strong ambitions for our climate.

There’s more from the crowds parading down São Paulo’s Paulista Avenue with a mixture of ecstasy and relief in celebration of Lula’s surprise election victory.

Cheers of “Let’s go, Lula!” rose from the crowd again and again. The leftwing president – who turns 81 on Tuesday – joined the parade, leaning out of the sunroof of a car with a megaphone in his hand and saying:

I just had to tell you that I love you. Tomorrow, the fight continues.

“I feel so happy!” 43-year-old Anna Zanatta said before bursting into tears of joy. “Lula’s victory represents many things for us: freedom, our democracy, our history,” she said, waving a flag bearing the message “Antifascist Action”.

Zanatta viewed a hypothetical Bolsonaro victory as a “threat” to Latin America’s largest democracy.

“I was born under a dictatorship, and I promised my granddaughter that we Brazilians would never go through that again,” she said, referring to the military regime that ruled from 1964 to 1985.

Agence France-Presse also quoted doorman Alfonso dos Reis, 64, who carried a sign reading “Lula again with the strength of the people” alongside a photo of the incumbent president.

“We’re going to build a much better country,” he beamed.

Lula supporters have poured into Brazilian streets after his election win and the defeat of rival far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro.

In São Paulo, the Guardian’s Tom Phillips reports that crowds are celebrating in a street party that is set to go until dawn to mark Lula’s historic victory.

Outside Bolsonaro’s mansion in Brasília, the Guardian’s Tiago Rogero reports that the senator has declared it “impossible to concede Lula’s victory” and vowed to seek the election’s annulment.

See vision from both cities in our video here.

Lula’s reelection win has set up ⁠a test for financial markets, with investors expecting recent bets on a change of government to unwind in a volatile week ahead.

Markets had moved sharply in anticipation of a rightwing shift ⁠since Flávio Bolsonaro unexpectedly finished first in the election’s opening round three weeks ago. Stocks closed on Friday almost 7% above their level going into the first round, while the real ⁠currency was nearly 5% stronger against the US dollar.

Interest-rate futures had indicated expectations that tighter public finances would allow borrowing costs to decline, Reuters reports.

“We expect a sharp market reaction on Monday, with aggressive repricing, a ⁠selloff in assets and interest rate futures likely to hit their upper limit shortly after the open,” said Luis Felipe Vital, head ​of macro strategy at Warren Investimentos.

Over the next four years, ‌Lula must slow the growth ‌of Brazil’s debt while protecting social programs and investment.

“We expect the rally that followed the first round to be largely priced out, and sentiment to stay weak until a clear fiscal plan emerges,” said Alejo Czerwonko, chief investment officer for emerging markets at UBS Global Wealth Management.