Ottawa planned for the possibility despite Donald Trump explicitly ruling out force as Canada moves to deepen defense ties with Europe
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has revealed that his government carefully examined the possibility of US-led military action against his country, despite President Donald Trump having ruled out using force against America’s northern neighbor.
In an interview with the New York Times published on Wednesday, Carney described such a scenario as an “extreme tail risk” – an event considered highly unlikely but serious enough to warrant contingency planning.
“That’s just risk management,” he said, adding that “it would be irresponsible not to [prepare].” Carney declined to discuss what that preparation involved.
Trump has repeatedly floated making Canada the 51st US state but explicitly ruled out using military force to achieve it, stating in January 2025 that he would apply “economic force” instead.
The US president has long accused Ottawa of unfair trade practices, particularly on dairy and automobiles, and has imposed a series of tariffs on Canadian goods since early 2025. Washington escalated the dispute in August 2026 with additional 50% duties on a range of Canadian products.
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