Could Italy replace Iran in this summer’s World Cup? Here’s how much leeway FIFA has

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Time is running short for Iran to decide if it will participate in this summer’s World Cup but some members of the Trump Administration apparently aren’t waiting, with U.S. special envoy Paolo Zampolli urging the president and FIFA leader Gianni Infantino to drop Iran and add Italy, a four-time champion, to the 48-team field.

“I confirm I have suggested to Trump and Infantino that Italy replace Iran at the World Cup,” Zampolli told the Financial Times. “I’m an Italian native and it would be a dream to see the Azzurri at a U.S.-hosted tournament.”

And while the proposal has received little support — even the Italians have rejected the idea as offensive — Zampolli’s comments are the latest in an unprecedented series of moves by the Trump Administration and its allies to insert themselves into preparations for this summer’s World Cup, the largest and most complex ever.

Last fall Trump threatened to pull World Cup games out of Democratically-run cities including Boston, Seattle and Santa Clara, citing safety and security. And more recently, presidential proclamations were issued restricting or limiting the entry to the U.S. of nationals from 39 countries — including Ivory Coast, Senegal, Haiti and Iran, who will be participating in the tournament. It is also requiring visitors from 50 countries to deposit a bond of up to $15,000 to enter the U.S. for the tournament, a fee players and coaches from Cape Verde, Algeria and Tunisia may have to pay.

The administration has also said Homeland Security personnel, which includes ICE, will be a “key part” of the security apparatus during the tournament, raising concerns among lawmakers and civil rights groups about the presence of immigration officials at World Cup venues. A union representing more than 30,000 workers at hotels, airports and sports arenas in Southern California filed a formal complaint with the National Labor Relations Board earlier this month accusing FIFA and others of failing to restrict access of ICE officials at SoFi Stadium, site of eight World Cup games.

“The blatant attempt at political interference not only drips with arrogance, but portends a highly politicized World Cup,” said Jules Boykoff, a professor of politics and government at Pacific University and former U.S. youth international who writes frequently on world sport. “The closer we get to the tournament, the more power Trump has over FIFA.”

Iran’s participation in this summer’s World Cup, which will be hosted by the U.S., Mexico and Canada, has been in doubt since the U.S. and Israel began bombing the country in February. The attacks have killed nearly 4,000 Iranians, caused more than $300 billion in economic damage and led Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, choking off a significant amount of the world’s oil and other necessities such as fertilizer and natural gas.

Iran, which is scheduled to play two of its three group-play games in Los Angeles in June, initially responded to the war by saying “under no circumstances” would it take part in the World Cup in the U.S., citing safety concerns and a lack of security. It then asked FIFA to move Iran’s first-round matches to Mexico instead, a request that was denied..

On Wednesday an Iranian government spokesperson said the team is preparing for “proud and successful participation” in the World Cup. However, Iran’s enthusiasm for the tournament seems to rise and fall based on the progress of negotiations to end the war, the first in history between a World Cup host and a qualified country.

The comments of Zampolli, an Italian-born former modeling agent and close friend of Trump whom the president has appointed as a special envoy for global partnerships, have once again raised doubts on Iran’s inclusion in the tournament.

A country that withdraws from the World Cup “no later than 30 days before the first match” faces the possibility of fines and other penalties, including disqualification for other sanctioned events, according to FIFA regulations. With the World Cup scheduled to open in Mexico City on June 11, that deadline is less than three weeks away.

But those same rules provide little guidance over what happens if a country withdraws or is otherwise removed from the tournament, giving FIFA “sole discretion” over selecting a replacement.

That means FIFA could replace Iran with Italy, which failed to qualify for the tournament after losing a one-game playoff to Bosnia and Herzegovina on penalty kicks last month. Ranked 12th in the world by FIFA, Italy the highest-ranked team not in the tournament field.

Officials in Italy, which has failed to qualify for the last three World Cups, quickly rejected the idea, with economy minister Giancarlo Giorgetti calling it “shameful.”

“Firstly it is not possible, secondly it is not appropriate,” sports minister Andrea Abodi added in an interview with La Press: “You qualify on the pitch.”

Such a move would also upset the carefully managed construction of the tournament field by increasing Europe’s participation to 17 teams while taking one spot away from the Asian confederation, which Iran represents. It would also remake the four-team group Iran was drawn into for the first round, perhaps leading the other countries — Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand — to file formal protests.

Given those considerations, the likely replacement should Iran withdraw is not Italy but the United Arab Emirates, the next-best team in the Asian qualifying tournament.

“It’s outrageous,” said Jonathan Wilson, author of “The Power and the Glory: The History of the World Cup.” “If Iran isn’t there it obviously should be the UAE as the next-best Asian side in qualification.”

But the UAE hasn’t played a game since losing to Morocco in the Arab Cup last December. It’s March friendly with Armenia was canceled over security concerns related to the U.S. war on Iran.

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