Crisafulli’s LNP falls to new low as third parties lift high-water mark

Queensland support for David Crisafulli’s LNP has fallen to its worst level 18 months since the party’s return to government, as minor parties and independents hit new heights.

A two-month polling snapshot shows primary vote support for the LNP has fallen to 30 per cent – its lowest level in Resolve Strategic surveys for this masthead.

That four percentage point fall since February’s snapshot comes as heightened primary vote support for One Nation holds at 17 per cent, leading the third-party options.

The Labor opposition’s primary vote has also lingered below 30 per cent for the second poll, with combined support for those beyond the major parties reaching a high of 43 per cent.

Despite slight dips, Premier David Crisafulli has retained his significant personal rating (+19) and standing over Labor leader Steven Miles for the top job, with 42 per cent preferring Crisafulli as premier.

But Miles, preferred by 26 per cent of respondents as premier after a slight lift, has also seen his personal rating (-5) fall to its lowest point since he lost government in October 2024.

Resolve director Jim Reed said the fact the LNP’s drop was driven by small lifts for a number of opponents suggested the rise of One Nation in Queensland was unique to other states.

“It may seem strange that One Nation are yet to crack the 20 per cent mark in [Pauline] Hanson’s home state, but we’ve got to remember this is one of the few places where the Coalition are in power,” Reed said.

“There’s less for right-of-centre voters to protest against here, and no weakened right-of-centre opposition to replace. In fact, One Nation have taken just as much vote from Labor in Queensland.

“This is about what the government’s doing. Crisafulli is still liked and highly rated as the state’s premier, however, so it’s probably more about policy and circumstances.”

Conducted in two waves across March 8 to 14, and April 13 to 18, the polling of 870 voters has a margin for error of 3 per cent.

Surveys finished on the eve of the start of formal campaigning for the Stafford byelection in Brisbane’s north, triggered by the death of independent MP Jimmy Sullivan, who was kicked out of the Labor party room last year.