TEHRAN- Citing the deadlock in the West Asia war and negotiations between Washington and Tehran, Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecast.
According to a Monday evening report by IRNA from The Guardian, the American multinational bank now predicts that Brent North Sea crude oil will trade at around $90 per barrel in the final quarter of this year. Previously, that figure was estimated at about $80.
Additionally, according to the bank’s analysts, U.S. crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) is expected to average $83 between October and December — a significant increase from the previous forecast of $75.
Goldman Sachs cited reduced production in the Persian Gulf region as the reason for this upward revision, stating: “We now assume that Gulf exports will return to normal by the end of June, and that production recovery in the Persian Gulf will be slower. Due to upside risks to oil prices, high refined product prices, the risk of product shortages, and the unprecedented scale of this shock, the economic risks are greater than our base case scenario.”
Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that 14.5 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf oil production have been lost, causing global oil inventories to decline by an unprecedented 11 to 12 million barrels per day.
Noting that higher oil prices will lead to demand destruction, they added: “Given the spike in refined product prices, we believe global oil demand in the second quarter of 2026 will fall by 1.7 million barrels per day year-on-year, and by 0.1 million barrels per day overall during 2026. Since sharp inventory declines are not sustainable, if the supply shock persists, demand destruction could become even more severe.”
Goldman Sachs also warns that the risks to its forecasts are skewed to the upside. The bank presents three scenarios for future oil prices:
·Unfavorable scenario: Assuming Persian Gulf exports return to normal by the end of July, Brent will average slightly above $100 in the fourth quarter of 2026.
· Very unfavorable scenario: If Persian Gulf exports return to normal by the end of July, but with a permanent capacity reduction of 2.5 million barrels per day, Brent will average near $120 in Q4 2026. This 2.5 million bpd reduction is equivalent to Hormuz Strait flows not recovering above 70%.
· Favorable scenario: If Persian Gulf exports return to normal by mid-June, with no capacity reduction, and assuming stronger supply from the U.S. and major OPEC countries, Brent will average slightly below $80 in Q4 2026.
Earlier this month, following the announcement of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, Goldman Sachs had lowered its oil price forecast.
EF/MA
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: tehrantimes.com
