The ongoing El Niño is expected to strengthen further in the coming months, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasting a near-100% probability that the phenomenon will persist through February 2027. The UN weather agency said it could become one of the strongest El Niño events recorded since at least 1950.
According to the WMO’s latest monthly climate update, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to reach an anomaly of 3.7 degrees Celsius above average during the October-December period. This would be significantly higher than the previous record anomaly of 2.6 degrees Celsius recorded between November 2015 and January 2016.
The WMO said El Niño is expected to reach its strongest intensity toward the end of the year, with conditions likely to remain in place into early 2027.
WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo said the unusually high ocean temperatures reflect the exceptional amount of heat stored in the Pacific, providing more energy for the El Niño event.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is the warm phase of the naturally occurring El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate pattern that influences weather conditions across large parts of the world.
It is generally associated with higher global temperatures and shifts in rainfall patterns. Some regions can experience drought, while others may see unusually heavy rainfall and flooding.
El Niño events typically occur every two to seven years, although their strength and impacts vary.
The warning comes as global temperatures remain exceptionally high. According to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, the average global temperature in August was 16.96 degrees Celsius, matching July 2023 as the hottest month on record.
A strong El Niño could add further upward pressure to global temperatures, although its regional weather impacts are expected to differ.
Strong El Niño Raises Health Concerns
Researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab have estimated that an exceptionally strong El Niño could have significant health consequences. A study released last month projected that the event could contribute to as many as 451,000 excess deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027.
The estimate underscores concerns over the potential impact of extreme heat, disrupted rainfall and other weather-related events as El Niño strengthens.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: abplive.com
