Election law overhaul set to hurt crossbenchers – and help One Nation

Micro-parties which receive a tiny share of votes will no longer be able to use complex preference deals to leapfrog into parliament, with the Allan government to legislate against the practice when MPs return from the winter break.

The move will pave the way for a vastly different upper house in Victoria after November’s state election, with the Greens, Labor and the Coalition likely to benefit at the expense of crossbench MPs. Based on current polling, One Nation would also elect several candidates.

Three sources across Labor and the Coalition, speaking to The Age on condition of anonymity to detail internal deliberations, said Premier Jacinta Allan was preparing to introduce legislation at the end of July to end the controversial system known as group voting tickets.

Victoria is the last jurisdiction in Australia which still uses the practice and there have been repeated calls for its removal, including from two parliamentary inquiries this term.

The complex scheme allows micro-parties to pool preferences from Victorians who vote above the line on the ballot paper for the upper house. Candidates can leapfrog more popular parties through backroom preference deals that have previously led to the election of candidates with a primary vote of less than 1 per cent.

About 90 per cent of Victorians typically vote above the line.

So-called “preference whisperer” Glenn Druery rose to prominence for successfully stitching together these deals, and spruiked his cash-for-seats business in a leaked video that emerged during the 2022 election campaign.

In recent months, right-wing figures Avi Yemini and Monica Smit have unveiled their own micro-parties – called the Free Palestine Party and the Save the Environment Party respectively – which both have indicated could harvest votes to funnel to conservative parties.

This has revived concerns about group voting tickets and reignited calls for them to be removed.

The government has previously said it would respond to a parliamentary inquiry report released in December that examined upper house reform. It followed a separate probe of the 2022 election.

A government spokesperson reiterated on Saturday that they were considering the recommendations and would respond “in due course”.

Several sources told The Age they had been assured the government would legislate to end group voting tickets when parliament resumed on July 28 after a six-week winter break.

The legislation must be introduced in the first week of parliament because the Victorian Electoral Commission says the change must be finalised by August to be eligible for use in the state election.

The Coalition and Greens are understood to be supportive of the move, as it will likely increase their representation in parliament, giving the legislation a clear majority to be passed in both houses.

But the overhaul will frustrate crossbench MPs who often provide the deciding votes in passing government legislation that is opposed by the Coalition.

Labor does not command a majority in the upper house this term, and most legislation is passed with assistance from the Greens and crossbenchers such as Animal Justice Party’s Georgie Purcell and Legalise Cannabis MPs Rachel Payne and David Ettershank.

There are currently 11 crossbench MPs in the 40-seat upper house, including four Greens and One Nation’s sole MP, Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell.

This masthead’s most recent Resolve Political Monitor had Pauline Hanson’s party on a primary vote of 24 per cent, which would be enough to see it elect at least eight MPs if replicated evenly across each of the eight regions represented in the upper house.

Each region has five MPs, meaning parties need to attract a 16.7 per quota – one-sixth of the total number of votes – to elect one member.

Crossbench MPs have previously argued group voting tickets should not be removed before more sweeping reforms to the upper house are implemented, which was also considered by the inquiry that reported in December.

Purcell told The Age: “Abolishing the group voting ticket without any other changes alongside it will see the balance of power handed to One Nation.”

“To force through a bandaid fix in a rush before the election when the government had the ability to do this alongside the entire parliament isn’t just disappointing, it is frightening in this political climate,” she said.

Replacing the upper house’s eight regions with a single statewide electorate is among the options under consideration. But that will require a plebiscite and cannot be implemented before November. It would be more likely to be put to voters at the next council election in 2028, or at the 2030 state election.

The last parliamentary inquiry recommended that after the 2026 election, the government should set up a new process to consider different views about the best structure for the upper house, allowing for community feedback before deciding on a final model.

Victoria has already missed the chance to implement other recommended changes to how votes are distributed, with the VEC saying in March it would need at least 18 months’ preparation to use the so-called “weighted inclusive Gregory method”.

Currently, when a candidate reaches the 16 per cent quota, surplus votes are transferred to other candidates at a reduced value. The parliamentary inquiry found that in some circumstances, this can lead to some votes counting for more than other votes, violating the principle of “one vote, one value”.

The VEC said it supported moving to a “weighted” method but attempting to adjust its counting systems in time for the 2026 poll would introduce “substantial risks to the delivery of the election”. It suggested that it be introduced in legislation by April 2027 so it could be used in the 2028 council elections.

In June, election analyst Antony Green – a vocal critic of group voting tickets – said the Allan government needed to abolish the practice to avoid the upper house election becoming a farce.

“If something isn’t done in the next month, shady backroom deals will determine the composition of the Legislative Council,” he wrote.

“And if the past is anything to go by, there could be half-a-dozen crossbench members elected from unknown parties recording only a tiny first preference vote.”

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