Nobody likes a good prediction more than we do here at Buckeyes Wire, and we get into it ourselves when the time comes each week during the 2026 Ohio State football season.
If you’ve followed us at all, you know we check what the ESPN matchup predictor says about Ohio State’s probability of winning each game on its schedule every week. The ESPN computers always adjust the numbers after the latest slate of games, and we like to check in each time.
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After a Week 10 that saw Ohio State drop its second straight loss, this time at home to the Oregon Ducks, along with other surprises, ESPN’s computer model did its thing and spit out a new look at the chances of the Buckeyes winning each remaining game on the 2026 regular-season schedule. It’s not just the loss that can move the needle; how other teams fared also plays into the analytics. How does the model treat OSU from here on out with a new quarterback and with a second loss in the conference?
This year’s schedule is coming down to the home stretch, and the Buckeyes need to find a way to win against Northwestern, at Nebraska, and vs. Michigan coming home if it wants to finish the season on a high note.
Here are ESPN’s matchup predictor numbers for the remainder of the Ohio State football schedule and how they have changed from the start. We include completed games going forward into the projected record for the Buckeyes.
Nov 5, 2025; Muncie, Indiana, USA; Ball State Cardinals tight end Kameron Anthony (85) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown against the Kent State Golden Flashes in the second half at Scheumann Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
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Predicted winner | Ohio State (99.0%)
Actual Result | Ohio State won 56-3
All-time series | Ohio State now leads 1-0
Actual running record | 1-0
Aug 30, 2025; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) makes a catch against Texas Longhorns defensive back Malik Muhammad (5) in the first half at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images
Location | Darryl K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, Texas)
Predicted winner | Texas (59.9%)
Actual Result | Ohio State lost 24-23
All-time series | Tied at 3-3
Actual running record | 1-1
Sept. 19 vs. Kent State
Kent State quarterback Dru DeShields look to pass with protection from Matt Pajuste (71) and Terik Mulder (89) in the first half against Central Michigan, Nov. 19, 2025.
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State (99.0%)
Actual Result | Ohio State won 59-3
All-time series | Ohio State leads 4-0
Actual running record | 2-1
Sept. 26 vs. Illinois
Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema motions during the first half of the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Gies Memorial Stadium in Champaign on Oct. 11, 2025.
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
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Predicted winner | Ohio State (95.3%)
Actual Result | Ohio State won 42-19
All-time series | Ohio State leads 70-30-4
Actual running record | 3-1
Oct. 3 at Iowa
Dec 31, 2025; Tampa, FL, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz reacts after beating the Vanderbilt Commodores in the ReliaQuest Bowl at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Location | Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City, Iowa)
Predicted winner | Ohio State (82.9%)
Actual Result | Ohio State won 31-14
All-time series | Ohio State leads 49-15-3
Actual running record | 4-1
Oct. 10 vs. Maryland
Nov 22, 2025; College Park, Maryland, USA; Maryland Terrapins head coach Mike Locksley walks the sidelines during the second half against the Maryland Terrapins t SECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State (98.4%)
Actual Result | Ohio State won 45-16
All-time series | Ohio State leads 10-0
Actual running record | 5-1
Oct. 17 at Indiana
Indiana Head Coach Curt Cignetti leads the team to the field before the BIg Ten Championship football game at Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday, Dec. 6, 2025.
Location | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, Indiana)
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Predicted winner | Ohio State (52.2%)
Actual Result | Ohio State won 19-15
All-time series | Ohio State leads 81-13-5
Actual running record | 6-1
Oct. 31 at USC
USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) tries to fend off Notre Dame Fighting Irish defensive lineman Gabriel Rubio (97) during an NCAA football game at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California.
Location | Memorial Coliseum (Los Angeles, California)
Predicted winner | Ohio State (82.8%)
Actual Result | Ohio State lost 30-18
All-time series | USC leads 14-10-1
Actual running record | 6-2
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore looks toward the scoreboard as the Oregon Ducks host the Indiana Hoosiers Oct. 11, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon.
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State (83.1%)
Actual Result | Ohio State lost 41-28
All-time series | Ohio State leads 10-3
Actual running record | 6-3
Nov. 14 vs. Northwestern
Aug 30, 2025; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Northwestern Wildcats quarterback Preston Stone (8) passes against Tulane Green Wave during the second half at Yulman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
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Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 86.3% (up from 86.2%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 66-14-1
Projected running record | 7-3
Dec 31, 2025; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Matt Rhule gestures against the Utah Utes in the first half during the SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Location | Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, Nebraska)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 78.8% (up from 75.2%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 9-2
Projected running record | 8-3
Ohio State Buckeyes defensive end Kenyatta Jackson Jr. (97) tackles Michigan Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) during the NCAA football game at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Mich. on Nov. 29, 2025.
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 89.7% (up from 89.6%)
All-time series | Michigan leads 62-52-6
Projected running record | 9-3
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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: ESPN updates remaining Ohio State game predictions after Oregon loss
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: Sports.yahoo.com
