TEHRAN – While Iran has experienced near-normal temperatures, with some regions recording above-average heat this week, Europe is enduring an intense heatwave that has fueled the spread of devastating wildfires.
According to Ahad Vazifeh, head of the National Center for Climate and Drought Crisis Management at Iran’s Meteorological Organization, the extreme conditions are being driven by a combination of climate teleconnection patterns such as El Niño, long-term climate change, and the melting of polar ice.
Europe recorded its hottest June on record this year. During the current week, temperatures in countries including France, Germany, and Spain are forecast to remain about 1 to 3 degrees Celsius above seasonal averages.
Meanwhile, parts of Central and Eastern Europe, extending to the Baltic region, including Italy and Switzerland, are expected to experience significant temperature anomalies. Similar conditions are forecast for parts of Poland, Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria, while Austria, Hungary, and Bosnia and Herzegovina could see temperatures soaring 5 to 10 degrees Celsius above normal, Vazifeh told ISNA.
Explaining the causes of this summer’s exceptional heat in Europe, the expert said that developing large-scale climate teleconnection patterns have placed tropical regions and the mid-latitudes—up to around 60 degrees north and south—in their warmest state since the post-industrial era.
Ocean temperatures have also risen dramatically, with the average sea surface temperature between 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north reaching approximately 21 degrees Celsius.
He added that polar ice volume has declined sharply and is currently at its lowest level on record, describing both warming oceans and shrinking polar ice as key indicators of the Earth’s changing climate. In addition to these long-term trends, regional atmospheric patterns can also intensify seasonal heatwaves. Such events are influenced by various climate drivers, including El Niño, the Eurasian teleconnection pattern, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
Vazifeh concluded that seasonal climate variability, combined with global warming, can at times produce powerful heatwaves capable of raising temperatures by 10 degrees Celsius or more above normal, while at other times leading to cooler-than-average conditions. Over the next one to two weeks, much of Central and Eastern Europe is expected to face exceptionally severe temperature anomalies.
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