Has Türkiye’s F-35 dream crashed for good?

An official letter sent by the US Department of State to Congress in late July set the dispute between Türkiye and the US over F-35 fighter jets back to square one.

The transfer of the aircraft and Türkiye’s reinstatement in the program are still impossible because Ankara continues to possess the Russian-made S-400 air defense system and associated equipment, has not provided legally sufficient guarantees that it will avoid similar purchases in the future and has therefore failed to meet the conditions under which the US administration could certify to Congress that the security risks to the F-35 program had been removed.

Washington has not closed the door on negotiations, allowing both sides to maintain the appearance of moving forward even though the legal situation has barely changed since Türkiye was expelled from the program. The letter appeared shortly after the NATO summit in Ankara, where Donald Trump, during a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said that sanctions on Türkiye could be lifted and indicated that the F-35 issue would be resolved positively. He did not announce a signed contract or specify a delivery date, but his words created the impression that the White House had already reached a political decision and that only technical obstacles remained.

Erdogan referred to the aircraft previously produced for Türkiye and expressed confidence that Trump would honor his promise. The exchange was aimed as much at the public in Türkiye as at Washington, since Ankara wanted to show that the long-running dispute was approaching a settlement and that the personal relationship between the two presidents could again reshape bilateral ties.

The present deadlock, however, reveals the limits of such diplomacy. Trump may see Erdogan as a useful ally and support Türkiye’s return to American weapons procurement, but presidential approval alone is not enough. The restrictions are embedded in US legislation, which prohibits the transfer of F-35s while Türkiye retains the S-400, and they are reinforced by a bipartisan group in Congress whose objections range from the Russian system itself to Erdogan’s domestic policies, Ankara’s ties with Hamas, its disputes with Israel, Greece and Cyprus, and the wider perception of Türkiye as an unpredictable ally.