Could the player who has the biggest impact in the Heisman Trophy race over the final month of the season be someone who isn’t in the running for the award?
Over the first eight weeks of the season, Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith was the clear favorite for the Heisman. It was easy to see why. Smith was dominant and setting Big Ten records on a near-weekly basis.
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But Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin’s injury against Indiana could have changed the whole trajectory of the Heisman race.
Smith was still the betting favorite after Ohio State’s bye week and ahead of Week 9. But after the Buckeyes lost 30-18 to USC, Smith’s odds got a lot longer.
Entering Week 10, Miami QB Darian Mensah is the Heisman favorite at +110. Smith, who had better than even-money odds to win the Heisman just a couple weeks ago, is at +275 and just ahead of Miami WR Malachi Toney at +325. No other player has odds better than 12-1.
The shift has come even as Smith showed he was still the best player on the field in Los Angeles. He had 10 catches for 83 yards and a touchdown, setting the Big Ten record for career receiving TDs in the process. But it was also his third straight game under 100 yards receiving after erupting for 23 catches for 423 yards across games against Illinois and Iowa in Weeks 4 and 5.
Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith has 62 catches for 1,067 yards and 13 touchdowns this season.
(Erick W. Rasco via Getty Images)
The game against USC was the first start for Ohio State freshman QB Luke Fahey. And he clearly understood that getting the ball in Smith’s hands was his best chance of passing success. While Smith had 10 catches, no other Ohio State player had more than two among Fahey’s other 11 completions.
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The sample size is limited, but excellent overall quarterback play has been a significant factor for the two Heisman-winning players who have played receiver this century. In 2024, Travis Hunter won the Heisman because he could play both cornerback and wide receiver at a high level. But he also put up No. 1 receiver stats while catching passes from Shedeur Sanders. The QB finished eighth in the Heisman voting.
Four years earlier, Alabama’s DeVonta Smith was the most dominant offensive player in college football. And as Smith caught 117 passes for 1,856 yards, QB Mac Jones set the FBS completion percentage record and finished third in the voting.
Heck, even if you want to go back to 1991 and Desmond Howard’s win, Michigan QB Elvis Grbac completed two-thirds of his passes and led the nation in pass efficiency rating.
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Fahey will make his second start of the season against Oregon on Saturday. The home game in Columbus should provide a friendlier atmosphere — and Smith will assuredly be his focal point. During his Monday news conference, Oregon coach Dan Lanning joked that his defense will try to put 12 players on the field to defend Smith, before remembering how his team beat Ohio State in 2024 with the help of a purposeful penalty for having an extra defender on the field.
But even if Fahey improves as a passer with every successive game in November, he’s got a long way to go to replicate Sayin’s production and his connection on the field with Smith. And that gap between quarterbacks could ultimately decide how relevant Smith is in the Heisman discussion as we reach November. Even if Smith keeps stacking up 10-catch games, Heisman voters may become enamored with someone else if he’s averaging around 10 yards a catch.
Here are the other players to watch in Week 10.
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Miami QB Darian Mensah and Miami WR Malachi Toney: A case for Smith’s continued candidacy despite the quarterback change is the potential vote-splitting that the two Miami stars would need to overcome. But both players have a huge opportunity to separate themselves from the field with a monster game against Notre Dame on Saturday night. Mensah is still completing over 80% of his passes — and on pace to set a college football completion percentage record — while Toney has 73 catches for 1,027 yards and 13 scores across just eight games.
Notre Dame QB CJ Carr: Carr, conversely, can make it a four-person Heisman race heading into the final three weeks of the regular season. Since Notre Dame isn’t in a conference, Carr won’t have the benefit of a conference title game. And the Irish’s final three games are against Boston College, SMU and Syracuse. If he has any realistic chance of winning the Heisman, he’s going to need to pick apart the Miami defense for the biggest game of his career.
Georgia QB Gunner Stockton: As Georgia heads to Ole Miss on Saturday night, Rebels QB Trinidad Chambliss’ Heisman odds are at 15-1. Stockton is at 50-1, following just 101 passing yards on 23 attempts in Georgia’s win over Florida. Yes, Stockton didn’t need to do much in the easy victory. But that performance also came on the heels of his three-turnover game against Auburn. Another pedestrian performance could drop Stockton out of the top 10 at the end of the year. He finished seventh in the voting a season ago.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: Sports.yahoo.com
