Sometimes it’s just not your week.
My big bets last week in college football got edged out by a half point here (Notre Dame) and a half point there (Boston College). That’s a tough way to go down. But it happens. Hey, the oddsmakers in Vegas study up too.
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I will say, again, like I did last week, that there is still plenty of room on your college football Saturday to find some games that are not in the national spotlight and make some money there. I am trying that track again this week.
All numbers from DraftKings as of Friday morning.
STATE COLLEGE, PENNSYLVANIA – SEPTEMBER 26: Jacob Harris #89 of the Wisconsin Badgers celebrates after scoring the game winning touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium on September 26, 2026 in State College, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images)
Wisconsin at Maryland (+8.5)
Inside the Odds: Something has to give with the over/under here. The last five Wisconsin games have gone under. Six of Maryland’s last seven games have gone over. Maryland has lost its last nine home games against Big 10 teams. The Terps are 4-5 against the spread. Wisconsin is 6-3 overall and 5-4 against the spread.
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My pick: When teams make coaching moves during the season, typically you get a little boost and then fall flat. It’s like when you had a substitute teacher in fifth grade, like, you’re good for the first period, and then all done. Maryland carried interim coach Aazaar Adbul-Rahim off the field last week after beating Purdue. That tells me they’re emotional cashed out. Maryland freshman QB Ryan Hopkins had three TD passes in last week’s win over Rutgers. I like Wisconsin big.
CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – DECEMBER 06: Nate Sheppard #20 of the Duke Blue Devils scores a rushing touchdown past Jordan Robinson #9 of the Virginia Cavaliers during the second quarter in the 2025 ACC Football Championship at Bank of America Stadium on December 06, 2025 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images)
Duke at Miami (-13.5)
Inside the Odds: On paper, this is one of the best games of the weekend. Duke is 7-2 and 7-2 against the spread. Miami is coming off that close loss to Notre Dame and is 8-1 and 6-3 against the number. Miami has won 11 straight over unranked teams. Duke has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games against Top 15 teams.
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My pick: To me, is Miami going to be mad, or deflated? My guess is mad. The U have the storyline of QB Darian Mensah coming back to play against his old team. Duke has a stud running back in Nate Sheppard who has 21 touchdowns. But Duke’s record might be deceiving. They have losses to 5-4 UNCC and 2-7 Georgia Tech. The points are a lot to swallow, but I’m take Miami to cover at home. If they win, it’ll be big.
SOUTH BEND, IN – SEPTEMBER 12: Rice Owls quarterback Jacurri Brown (11) looks to pass the ball to his teammate during the game between the Rice Owls and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on September 12, 2026 at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana. (Photo by Joseph Weiser/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Tulane at Rice (-2.5)
Inside the Odds: Rice is 1-8, yet favored at home and favored for the second time this season. The Owls are 4-5 against the spread this season. Tulane has alternated losses and wins this season. They are 1-3 on the road. Rice has covered the spread in nine of its last 10 games against Louisiana schools.
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My pick: Neither one of these teams should be on your radar, but let me tell you that after making the CFP last year, Tulane has fallen apart. They’ve played musical chairs at QB and are coming off a 60-10 loss to Tulsa that wasn’t even that close. First-year coach Will Hall is a nice man, but clearly in over his head. Rice has been competitive. QB Jacurri Brown played at Miami and UCF and can run the ball some. This is my favorite pick of the weekend. Take Rice to cover.
LEXINGTON, KENTUCKY – SEPTEMBER 5: Henry Boyer #87 and Mikkel Skinner #8 of the Kentucky Wildcats celebrate a touchdown during the first half against the Youngstown State Penguins at Kroger Field on September 5, 2026 in Lexington, Kentucky. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
Florida at Kentucky (-3)
Inside the Odds: There’s been some movement on the betting line in this one, looks like money is coming in on Florida. The Gators are 5-4 and have lost four of their last five games against the spread. Kentucky is 7-2 and 5-4 against the spread. Its last three games have gone under. Florida’s last four games have gone under. Kentucky has covered the spread eight of the last nine games against unranked teams.
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My pick: More Homecoming storylines here as Jon Sumrall, the new coach at Florida, faces his alma mater for the first time. Sumrall had the Gators riding high, but they’ve collapsed due to poor QB play. Neither Tramell Jones or Aaron Philo have been great. Kentucky had won six in a row, but got spanked by Tennessee last week, bad. I think there are tiers in the SEC this year: Georgia, Tennessee and maybe Bama, then a cut. I’d put Kentucky in that second cut with Texas and Ole Miss. I like Kentucky to cover at home.
AUSTIN, TEXAS – OCTOBER 31: Arch Manning #16 of the Texas Longhorns greets fans after the game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on October 31, 2026 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
Texas at LSU (-4)
Inside the Odds: The line on this one has definitely moved with money coming in on Texas. The Longhorns and the refs have won three in a row and three in a row against the spread (Yes, they got some help last week against Mizzou). LSU is 5-1 at home this season, but 4-5 against the spread. I think they are a team that has been overvalued by the books.
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My pick: Yet another Homecoming theme with Arch Manning coming back to his home state with the Longhorns to play the Tigers. It’s Texas’ first trip to Death Valley since 1953. I don’t think Texas is national championship contenders. They just aren’t consistent enough on offense, but LSU went for the quick fix for its roster and it shows. It’s a bunch of great individual players, not much of a team. LSU hasn’t beaten a good team this season. Texas is good – not great. I will take Texas with the points happily.
This article was originally published on Forbes.com
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: Sports.yahoo.com
