How to pick a Melbourne Cup winner: A bluffer’s guide to punting (and the coveted trifecta)

It’s the race that stops the nation – but how do you actually select a Melbourne Cup winner?

Some veteran punters like to spend hours studying the form guides, while newcomers might opt for their favourite number, silk colour, a name they like or rely on superstitions.

But what does the data say? Which barrier number has the most wins in Flemington history and are you better off picking a gelding or a mare?

Here’s our guide to help you navigate Australia’s greatest race.

Which silks have the most wins?

For first-time punters, one of the easiest ways to pick a horse is to choose a jockey based on your favourite colour.

If blue is not your favourite colour, then you may need to consider switching. Jockeys who wear blue silks have won the Cup 40 times. Black is also successful, with 25 wins.

Perhaps that was Jamie Melham’s secret to winning the Melbourne Cup last year. The jockey rode Half Yours to victory in 2025 and wore a combination of blue and black silks.

Let’s talk numbers

If you’re numerically inclined, you can always pick a horse based on weight, barrier or saddle-cloth number.

Barriers 11 and five are the equal-most successful in Melbourne Cup history, producing nine winners each. The most recent win was Robbie Dolan’s 2024 win on Knight’s Choice from barrier five.

Dolan had originally drawn barrier six, but he and his mount were moved to barrier five after a late scratching. Meanwhile, barrier 11 has been in a drought since Americain won in 2010.

Barrier eight has also had some success, with Half Yours winning from there last year.

Verry Elleegant broke barrier 18’s duck in 2021 and barrier seven hasn’t produced a Cup winner since Blackwood in 1924.

No.4 is the most successful saddlecloth number. It has 12 wins, the last victor being Verry Elleegant, ridden by James McDonald.

No.12 and No.1 have a history of success, and no one has ridden No.18 to victory since Peter Pan in 1932.

Horses carrying 51 to 51.5 kilograms typically have a good record in the race, but the most common weight carried to victory is 53 kilograms, with nine wins.

During the past 36 years, only Makybe Diva in 2005 has carried 58 kilograms or more to victory. Verry Elleegant was pretty close, carrying 57 kilograms to victory in 2021.

Other fun facts to inform your decision

1. Only three fillies and 12 mares (female horses) have won the Cup. Verry Elleegant in 2021 was the first since Makybe Diva, which won three consecutive Cups from 2003 to 2005.
2. The colour bay – a reddish-brown coat – has produced 13 of the past 16 winners.
3. Only six grey horses have ever won the Melbourne Cup. The most recent was Efficient in 2007.
4. Horses whose names start with the letters I, Q, U, X and Y have never won the Melbourne Cup.

Look to the experts

If all else fails, you can also rely on some advice from our racing writers Danny Russell and Peter Ryan, who have picked apart the Cup field in search of the perfect tips for the coveted trifecta.

Meanwhile, our racing writers Danny Russell and Peter Ryan pull apart the Melbourne Cup field in search of tipping the coveted trifecta.

Hey Pete, I understand you’ve been scoping out Werribee Racecourse for some inside mail on the internationals. Are we jumping on the big spruik horse Point Of Law?

Ethan Brown was riding him at Werribee on Sunday as he prepares for the big race, which is only the sixth in his career and the second since his impressive Geelong Cup win. Point Of Law has been impressive and is working well, but I think he will start too short to back, given his lack of race experience and the certainty that he will be pushed much harder on Tuesday than he was in Geelong. He will finish in the top 10, but that’s where my enthusiasm ends.

I’ve definitely got him top four because no one has dominated in Geelong like that since Gary Ablett jnr strutted his stuff at GMHBA Stadium. But surely something else piqued your interest in your Sunday morning reconnaissance mission?

I’m not that excited about the internationals to be honest, Danny. Unfortunately, stewards withdrew the Japanese horse Stinger Glass because I think he had an edge on Joseph O’Brien’s chances. But you can’t have a trifecta without one of O’Brien’s included. I’m looking at Sons And Lovers as a placegetter while last year’s runner-up Goodie Two Shoes will run a big race. JP McManus is going to launch her at the Call of Card. What do you think of the internationals hope?

I can’t wait until McManus opens his wallet when they start taking bets on Monday. He’s got plenty of the green stuff, and being a former bookie, he obviously knows his stuff. I reckon the Aussie bookmakers will be shaking in their boots because his second runner Trustyourinstinct is a massive chance. He’s my sole international pick. Otherwise, I’m all in on Ciaron Maher.

It’s hard not to be all in on Maher when he has seven runners. Middle Earth, Mr Monaco and Juja Kibo have my vote at this stage but working out which of the three I like most is proving difficult. Do you want a horse set for the race, since he finished third last year? Or would you prefer Mr Monaco, who is a lightly weighted stayer certain to run the trip? Or Juja Kibo, who has finishing speed and can stay? It’s not easy. Can you help or do you have someone in mind from outside those three, or even outside Maher’s stable?

So many questions, Pete, and sadly no definitive answers until 3.05pm on Tuesday afternoon. But, hey, it’s our job to have a crack. So, I have Middle Earth on top. I’m working on the Bart Cummings theory of runners needing 10 kilometres in their legs before the first Tuesday in November. So far, he has racked up 9940m. That’s got to be close enough. I also like Maher’s Shockletz on the featherweight of 51kg. We’re still waiting to see who takes the ride after Harry Coffey’s unfortunate fall on Saturday. Thankfully, he’s OK. What about the bolters? There’s always a sneaky outsider.

I’m putting my money on Juja Kibo as he is on the up, but I will throw Middle Earth and Mr Monaco into the multiples. Shockletz is a good call at that weight, but my outsider is Sydney Cup runner-up Soul Of Spain who charged past Juja Kibo and Mr Monaco in that April race. Tommy Berry is back on board for the first time since that run, which is a good thing because the mid-race move in the Caulfield Cup ruined the horse’s chance, but he stuck on well to finish eighth.

I think Middle Earth would still be gasping in a paddock had he run an ultra-marathon. OK, so that winds us up in this hunt for the elusive Melbourne Cup trifecta. Finally, I’m adding roughies Zahrann, Lizlyar and Asterix to my mix.

DANNY RUSSELL
1st: 2, 4, 20 2nd: 2, 4, 16, 20, 24 3rd: 2, 4, 9, 12, 15, 16,18, 19, 20, 24 $10 flexi for 10.4 per cent.

PETER RYAN
1st: 4, 11, 22 2nd: 1, 4, 11, 14, 16, 22 3rd: 1, 4, 11, 14, 16, 22 $10 flexi for 16.67 per cent.