Credit to Illinois for not shutting up shop after a 2-3 start to the campaign.
We’ve seen plenty of Power 4 teams in this current era do just that, but the Illini have gone in the opposite direction and played spoiler in the Big Ten.
The Illini have now won four straight, including over Oregon and Nebraska, and they have the opportunity to hand UCLA its first loss while keeping their own slim Big Ten Championship hopes alive.
The undefeated Bruins are 10.5-point favorites at the Rose Bowl on Friday night.
Illinois vs. UCLA odds, prediction
How is UCLA doing this? And more importantly, can the Bruins sustain it over the final three games against Illinois, Michigan, and USC?
Knowing that he needed to instill an identity into his new team, Bob Chesney came to UCLA with a clear vision. He wanted to make the Bruins hard to beat. Other teams in the Big Ten have more talent at their disposal, but few, if any, work harder than UCLA every snap.
The Bruins wear teams out with an elite running game, and then they let their defense go to work. Chesney has turned UCLA into a vintage Big Ten juggernaut, which is ironic because no team fits into the conference less than the Bruins. Everything that was down is now up in college football.
Illinois’ identity is much more fluid. The Illini are playing their best football of the season right now, but it’s still well below the level we’re seeing from UCLA.
The wins against Oregon and Nebraska were genuinely impressive, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but the majority of the Illini’s results this year have left something to be desired.
They were fortunate to get a win over Michigan State in Week 6, they have losses to Purdue and Duke on their ledger, and they are just two weeks removed from a three-point win over lowly Maryland.
And now, the defense will walk into a nightmare matchup.
After running the ball down everyone’s throat all season, UCLA showed a different side against Minnesota. Ty Dieffenbach, who replaced injured QB Nico Iamaleava midway through the year, lit up the Golden Gophers for 303 yards and three touchdowns.
That performance should give the Illini pause, as they’ll need to contend with an offense that is fifth in the country in yards per rush (5.3) and now showing signs of strength through the air, ranking 22nd in yards per pass (8.4).
Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps
Those numbers point to a long night for an Illini defense that has been overwhelmed all season, allowing 5.9 yards per play (101st) and 4.3 yards per rush (83rd).
The pressure will fall on Illinois’ offense to keep them in this game, and I just don’t see that happening against a defense that ranks sixth in SP+ this season.
Illinois may be full of vigor after four straight wins, but it’ll need more than that to upset a genuine national championship contender at the Rose Bowl.
The Play: UCLA -10.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: nypost.com
