In Scottie Scheffler’s weird season of near misses, 1 trend has emerged

Scottie Scheffler stared at the ball as it rose through the Texas sky. The World No. 1 was coming off back-to-back birdies and had a green-light wedge from 105 yards. He was on the hunt, trying to run down Si Woo Kim and hold off Wyndham Clark to defend his title at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. Everyone thought Scheffler, who started the final round two shots back, would eventually overtake Kim and claim the trophy. That’s what killers do. Surely, he’d stick this wedge shot tight for a third straight birdie and be off to the races.

The ball came down at the flag, but this time the golf gods had a different plan. It hit the stick and ricocheted back down the green, leaving Scheffler a 55-foot putt for birdie. He made par and eventually finished in third place, five shots back of Clark, who shot a final-round 11-under 60 to win.

“When you’re winning tournaments, those are the ones that sometimes go in,” Scheffler said, laughing, after his round. “When you’re not winning tournaments, those are the ones that hit the pin and kind of go 50, 60 feet away.”

And so Scottie Scheffler’s strange year of near-misses continued at a course he tore apart last season en route to a runaway win.

Scheffler has now finished in the top three six times this season. He won in his season debut at the American Express, but the floodgates have not opened as expected. Scheffler has still lived atop the leaderboard, but has constantly found himself grasping for a trophy yet unable to grip it.

Back in February at Pebble Beach, Rory McIlroy referred to Scheffler as “relentless.” Nothing seemed to faze the World No. 1. Not a bad round, bad shot, nor a bad break. He just kept coming. That week, Scheffler stumbled out of the gates in Round 1 but went on a Sunday charge that came up just short as he finished in a tie for fourth.

“One of my skills, and I feel I’ve been able to be on a lot of leaderboards recently, is getting in the round when I haven’t had my best stuff,” Scheffler said that week at Pebble Beach. “I think these are some of the weeks when you look back, I’m very proud of sticking with it, not giving up even when I felt like things were going against me this week. Just kept fighting, kept trying to hit shots, kept trying to execute.”

A lull by Scheffler’s standards followed as he finished T12 at the Genesis and T24 at the Arnold Palmer in his next two starts. At the Players Championship, Scheffler was asked about how he manages expectations. Ever since he broke through in 2022, Scottie Scheffler has won a lot and won everywhere. That level of dominance leads to everything being viewed through a binary lens: win or lose. Scheffler bristled at the idea that he had not been playing up to expectations. Expectations can be an anchor, especially if they are outsized. But Scottie Scheffler explained that he views everything through his ability to control his game and his preparation. The results will come if that foundation is sturdy.

“I think that’s kind of a funny question, because if you flipped my season around, what did I finish last week? Like 24th or something — 24th and 12th, and like 3rd and 4th, and a win. Would your question be the same if I was coming from 3rd, 4th, win?” Scheffler said at TPC Sawgrass. “So that’s my point. It’s like your expectations of me are living week by week. My expectations of myself are almost shot-by-shot.

“When it comes to my golf game and my expectations of myself, my expectations all are based around what I want for me mentally on the golf course as being committed to what I can do, and controlling that aspect.”

He struggled that week. The driver was bad, and his normally pristine iron game was only just really good.

Next came the Masters and a flurry of near-misses that have come to define a weird season for the world’s best player.

At Augusta National, Scheffler played near-flawless golf in brutal conditions in Round 1. He stumbled on an easier setup in the second round, leaving him 11 shots back of Rory McIlroy entering the weekend. Then, Scheffler played 36 holes of bogey-free golf and came up one shot short of McIlroy. On the 17th hole on Sunday, Scheffler’s birdie putt was tracking toward the hole but bobbled left at the last second, leading to a par and a second-place finish.

After the round, Scheffler bemoaned Augusta National’s decision to soften the setup on Friday and then praised McIlroy while noting that a few shots over the course of 72 holes were the difference. The margins are razor-thin, and sometimes one swing is the difference between winning and losing.

“I’ve competed against him for a long time, and you don’t win the amount of tournaments that he’s won out here without being pretty resilient,” Scheffler said of McIlroy. “I knew going into today I was going to have to do something special if I wanted to catch him on Cam [Young] and I was close but just a few shots here or there.”

Rory McIlroy beat Scottie Scheffler. But Scheffler also gave him an opening.

A similar story unfolded the following week at the RBC Heritage.

Scheffler entered the weekend seven shots behind Matt Fitzpatrick, but made a weekend charge and tied the Englishman on the final hole to send the tournament to a playoff. Then, Fitzpatrick hit a piercing 4 iron through the wind to 13 feet and made the birdie putt to win and hand Scheffler another runner-up finish.

“On Sunday, it’s a shot here or there that makes a difference,” Scheffler said as Fitzpatrick celebrated. “This was one of those weeks where anytime Fitzy needed something to happen, he made something happen. He definitely earned the win, and he just played great golf.”

A few weeks later, at the Cadillac Championship, Scheffler got off to a ho-hum start while Cameron Young fired an opening-round 64 to best him by seven shots. Scheffler matched him over the next 54 holes but had to settle for a second-place finish as Young walked to a six-shot win at Doral.

“This week he hit a lot of quality shots,” Scheffler said of Young that week. “A lot of quality iron shots, quality tee shots, especially on the holes where it really matters. There are some tee shots out here that are really difficult and he stepped up and hit the shots. On the greens, he was unbelievable this week. First 27 holes, I don’t think he missed anything really. It was nuts. Guy was just holing everything. When you’re hitting really good shots and holing a lot of putts, that’s a recipe to run away with a golf tournament.”

Scottie Scheffler has been playing really good golf. If you look at his stats compared to last season, when he won seven times, Scheffler has been just a tick worse. Last season, Scheffler ranked first in total Strokes Gained (2.743), was second in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee (0.748), first in approach (1.291) and 22nd in putting (0.382). This season, Scheffler has been a little better on the greens (0.506) but has seen his iron play drop from otherworldly to just good (0.521 Strokes Gained: Approach). Scheffler’s total Strokes Gained is down to 2.221 this season. That still leads the PGA Tour, but the dip in iron play is just enough to make him beatable when other world-class players bring their A-game.

“If you looked statistically, I’m probably not much different than I have been the past couple of years, just a few shots here and there,” Scheffler said Sunday after losing to Clark. “A couple things go my way in some tournaments. This season looks a bit differently, but like you said, I’ve been playing some solid golf. Just keep putting myself in position, and things will turn my way.”

Golf is a fickle game that’s won and lost on the finest margins. Tiger Woods once went two years and four months without a win. Jack Nicklaus also went 24 months without a victory. Rory McIlroy went 18 months without hoisting a trophy.

Scheffler’s last win came three months ago.

He’s still the best player in the world. That his near-misses are even a topic of conversation speaks to the expectations of greatness. Such is the price of world-beating talent. Scottie Scheffler’s golf has been a touch below the standard he set last year, leading to him constantly finishing on the other side of golf’s fine line. One bad swing or bad round has opened the door for McIlroy, Fitzpatrick, Young and, on Sunday, Clark to play their best and beat him.

As he left TPC Craig Ranch on Sunday, Scheffler sounded like a broken record discussing another near-miss that very well could’ve had a different ending had he just been a little sharper and not run into another outstanding performance.

“Sometimes you’ve just got to tip your cap and say good playing, and 60 was going to be pretty tough to beat today,” Scheffler said. “Overall, I’m proud of this week for myself, but I wish I could have gotten a few more shots out of it. Overall, Wyndham played great golf.”

Then Scottie Scheffler departed his hometown tournament, hoping that his next start, the Memorial, will have a different ending.