With three rounds remaining in the home-and-away season, the sprint to September is on.
Fremantle have all but locked up top spot, but there is much to keep supporters interested in the chasing pack.
The Swans, Hawks and Lions are battling for second spot, while the remaining finals berths are open.
The Blues are back in the hunt, as are the Saints, the Demons are hunting a top-four spot, while the Western Bulldogs remain a riddle.
The introduction of the wildcard round – extending the number of clubs who can make finals from eight to 10 – has ensured more teams remain in the race deep in the campaign.
We take a look at what awaits for your team. The best-case and worst-case scenarios are projections only.
What we say: Good luck to opponents was how Dockers coach Justin Longmuir put it after the Western Bulldogs failed in their negative flooding tactics on Friday night. To be fair, the Dogs did all they could, but it did not matter as the Dockers posted a club record 18th win in a season. Is it time to declare “Flag-mantle”? They have another three opponents to come who remain in the finals hunt, but it’s difficult to see this team being beaten, unless players are “managed”.
Best-case finish: First. Worst-case finish: First.
What we say: The Saints were always going to be a pesky opponent, even though last week we did not consider them a major test. Having got the job done, there is no reason why the Swans cannot win their final three games and frank second spot, for the Kangaroos are the highest-positioned side they will face.
Best-case finish: Second. Worst-case finish: Fourth.
What we say: The Hawks, trailing by a point at the final change, did what they had to do to take the points over the Kangaroos, with Nick Watson booting an equal-career-high five goals and giving himself a chance to pinch the Coleman Medal. But now comes some serious business – a trip to Brisbane to face the Lions, and even a home clash against the battered Magpies. Second spot is still for the taking if the Swans slip.
Best-case finish: Second. Worst-case finish: Fourth.
What we say: The Crows squashed the Bombers early, as good teams should when facing a lowly opponent. We’re still unsure where the Crows really sit in terms of premiership aspirants – we’ll know more in a fortnight when they face the Dockers. But wins over Richmond and GWS should be enough to secure the double chance.
Best-case finish: Second. Worst-case finish: Sixth.
What we say: The Lions had their seven-game winning streak snapped (and taken a hit to their percentage) by the resurgent Blues, and now comes another major test in Hawthorn. The Lions are a known product – they can score with the best, but can leak goals with the best. That’s not a premiership formula, although coach Chris Fagan is refusing to panic. We will back them in against the Hawks (only just) but, should they lose, the double chance could be at risk. However, they should win their final two games.
Best-case finish: Fourth. Worst-case finish: Eighth.
What we say: The Demons claimed bragging rights over club great Christian Petracca with a gritty win on the Gold Coast, ensuring they slip back into the top six and can still challenge for fourth spot – a higher ceiling than we tipped last week. After their struggles against the Cats, the Demons will want to prove their mettle against the Dockers at the MCG on Saturday. Percentage could ultimately decide their landing spot.
Best-case finish: Fourth. Worst-case finish: Eighth.
What we say: The Cats just continue to find a way. Once again, they have brushed injuries – and a managed absence (Patrick Dangerfield) – aside to torpedo another likely finals-bound competitor. Considering their final three opponents are no higher than 13th on the ladder, with two of these games at GMHBA Stadium, the Cats still remain in contention for fourth spot. Regardless, they appear again set for a deep September run.
Best-case finish: Fourth. Worst-case finish: Eighth.
What we say: The Dogs will hope sore forwards Aaron Naughton and Cody Weightman return this week. They are still in the hunt for a top-six berth, despite having their three-game winning streak snapped. To avoid the wildcard round, they probably need to win all three of their remaining games. That is doable, but the Dogs are hard to read.
Best-case finish: Fourth. Worst-case finish: Ninth.
What we say: A top-four berth now appears lost, but there is still a chance the Magpies can slip into the top six, and avoid the wildcard round. But it’s going to take something special, for Jeremy Howe (arm fracture) and Harry Perryman (hamstring) have been added to a growing list of injured defenders. We’ll tip them to beat the Eagles at home, but we have re-rated the Magpies because Hawthorn and the Brisbane Lions will likely be a step too far.
Best-case finish: Fifth. Worst-case finish: 11th.
What we say: If Josh Fraser has not made up his mind about officially applying for the senior coaching role, he should now, for only Fremantle have a better record since he took charge. Fraser got the big win he really needed – against the Lions – to reinforce that his game plan can stand up against the best. But the run home will be challenging, starting with fellow wildcard contenders St Kilda on Sunday night. A win and the Blues could have one hand on 10th spot.
Best-case finish: Ninth. Worst-case finish: 12th.
What we say: Coach Ross Lyon says his team treats every game as if it is a grand final, and that’s what they will have to do over the final three weeks, particularly against the Blues on Sunday night. The Saints are clinging to hopes of finishing in 10th spot. There is no reason why they can’t, for their final three games are winnable, particularly against Richmond and Gold Coast.
Best-case finish: 10th. Worst-case finish: 13th.
What we say: The banged-up Giants have been an unsolvable riddle this season, but dug deep to edge the Power in Adelaide. While they are a game outside the top 10, they now have home games against the Gold Coast and West Coast, which should be wins.
Then comes another trip to Adelaide, this time to face the Crows. That clash may ultimately decide their fate, particularly if the Blues stumble.
Best-case finish: 10th. Worst-case finish: 14th.
And a thought on:
North Melbourne
What we say: That’s five straight defeats for the Kangaroos, who have run out of gas just when they needed to put the foot down. Once again, this time against the Hawks, the Roos had every chance to pinch victory, but fell short. There is every chance they lose their final three games. That end-of-season trip to Cancun can’t come quick enough.
Best-case finish: 11th. Worst-case finish: 15th.
Gold Coast
What we say: That’s 10 consecutive defeats, their finals hopes now officially over. Why this campaign has spiralled out of control should be the subject of a bruising review by club chief Mark Evans.
Port Adelaide
What we say: Unofficially, they have been out of the finals race for some time, but can still shape how the top six looks if they can upset either the Swans or Melbourne. The Bombers shape as their best hope for a season-ending win, and likely farewell to Zak Butters – should he be fit to return.
West Coast
What we say: Probably blew their best chance of a fifth victory on Sunday against the Tigers, for the Magpies, Giants and Hawks await.
Richmond
What we say: Have lifted themselves off the bottom of the ladder, but was it really worth it? Surely, the top pick in the national draft amid the Butters’ sweepstakes would have been the best option.
Essendon
What we say: All is not lost for the Bombers, for the round-24 clash against Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium is a victory they could pinch. The biggest interest around the Bombers now is whether caretaker coach Dean Solomon will officially enter the coaching race. That will be known this week.
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Jon Pierik is a sports journalist at The Age. He covers AFL and has won awards for his cricket and basketball writing.Connect via X or email.From our partners
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: www.smh.com.au
