For much of the past year, India-China relations appeared to be on a cautious path to recovery.

The two countries have seen ups and downs in their ties over decades – especially over the disputed Himalayan frontier.

But events of the past few days suggest that the thaw which has followed their most recent clashes in 2020 may be more fragile than it seems.

The latest concerns began when India’s border police chief said Chinese troops had returned to disputed areas along the Himalayan frontier in large numbers earlier this year, pitching tents several kilometres inside territory claimed by India.

The remarks by Shatrujeet Singh Kapur, director general of the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP), have triggered a political controversy in Delhi.

To begin with, such comments by serving officials are rare. Sensitive border issues are usually addressed by the federal government through its defence or foreign ministries.

At a recent gathering of officers in Rajasthan state, Kapur said face-offs between Indian and Chinese troops had taken place at several locations in the north-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh and were continuing.

The confrontations began in July, he said, but both sides initially withdrew.

A few days later, Chinese troops returned in larger numbers and pitched tents “around six-to-seven kilometres inside India’s perception of the Line of Actual Control (LAC)”, he added.

The LAC is an ill-defined line separating the areas controlled by the neighbours and India and China have sparred for decades over this disputed 3,440km (2,100-mile) border.

China claims Arunachal Pradesh as part of southern Tibet. But Delhi has always rejected the claim, saying the state was an integral part of India.

The dispute is one of the most persistent challenges inherited by independent India from the British colonial rule in 1947. It led to a brief border war in 1962, in which India suffered a humiliating defeat.

More than six decades later, much of the frontier remains undemarcated, with the two countries maintaining overlapping territorial claims.

The region’s rugged terrain adds to the challenge: shifting river courses, lakes and snow-covered peaks make it difficult to establish a clear boundary.

As a result, troops from the two sides can find themselves face-to-face along the frontier, sometimes triggering violent clashes and diplomatic tensions.

The last major escalation came in June 2020, when Indian and Chinese troops clashed in the Galwan Valley in Ladakh. At least 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese soldiers were killed.

It was the first fatal confrontation between the two sides since 1975. Indian opposition parties accused the government of losing territory to China – a claim Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has repeatedly rejected.

The clashes triggered a sharp deterioration in relations, disrupting diplomatic engagement and affecting trade and travel. After several rounds of negotiations, the neighbours agreed in 2024 to take steps towards easing border tensions.

They have since moved to restore direct flights and ease visa restrictions imposed after the clashes.

Chinese President Xi Jinping also visited India in September for the Brics summit, his first visit to the country in seven years.

These developments raised hopes of a broader normalisation of ties. But the latest reported stand-offs have renewed questions about how much progress has actually been made on the ground.

After Kapur’s comments, the main opposition Congress party once again accused Modi of making concessions to Beijing.

“The prime minister and his entire apparatus remain silent on this grave issue,” senior Congress leader Jairam Ramesh wrote on X, external.

The Indian government has not explicitly denied Kapur’s account that Chinese troops had pitched tents several kilometres inside what India considers to be its side of the LAC.

Foreign ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said last week that “the situation in the border areas gets disturbed from time to time when Chinese forces diverge from established patrolling patterns”.

He said both countries were using military and diplomatic channels to address outstanding issues, but gave no further details.

A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said that China had “consistently and strictly adhered to relevant agreements” reached with India and it conducted “normal patrol and management activities in the border areas to safeguard territorial sovereignty”.

Experts say Kapur’s remarks offer a rare glimpse into what they describe as China’s increasingly assertive military posture along the disputed frontier.

“This pattern of Chinese probing at various points of the Arunachal Pradesh border has been happening for some time,” Shyam Saran, a former Indian foreign secretary who led several rounds of border talks with China in the mid-2000s, told the BBC.

He said such actions were “not enough to result in an immediate war, but enough to sort of create new facts on the ground”.

Indian opposition parties have long accused China of extending its presence in both Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh, leading to tensions.

Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel in China’s People’s Liberation Army who is now associated with Tsinghua University in Beijing, said both countries had learnt lessons from the 2020 Galwan clashes.

“The two sides should be more careful to avoid this kind of thing from happening in the future,” he said, adding that Chinese media had not reported on the latest stand-offs in Arunachal Pradesh.

India and China’s tensions also come against the backdrop of a complicated economic relationship.

Despite their differences, the countries remain major trading partners, with bilateral trade, external reaching $151bn last year. But the balance is heavily tilted in Beijing’s favour, with Chinese exports to India accounting for about $131bn.

India continues to rely on Chinese imports for machinery, rare earth magnets, electric vehicle batteries and pharmaceutical products.

This dependence means tensions with Beijing can have consequences well beyond the border, particularly for Indian industries and infrastructure projects.

Last week, China also announced restrictions on exports of tunnel-boring machines used in metro rail and highway construction, saying they were intended to protect national security and national interests. Although these curbs were not India specific, they would have a bearing on India’s infrastructure push.

“Chinese policy towards India is designed to complicate India’s rise, including India’s ability to master certain things in advanced technology and manufacturing,” Christopher Clary, a professor at the University at Albany in New York, told the BBC.

A similar problem emerged last year when China restricted export of rare earth magnets – widely used in electric vehicles, smartphones, wind turbines and medical scanners.

The move temporarily caused supply problems for Indian industries, highlighting how Beijing’s control over key materials can affect global supply chains.

India is now trying to build domestic capacity to produce rare earth magnets, but developing the industry will take time and investment.

For people living along the disputed frontier, the consequences of tensions with China are more immediate.

“Villagers living in some border areas tell us that they cannot access grazing lands because of Chinese intrusion and encroachment. It’s not something new, it’s been happening for a long time,” says Tongam Rina, a senior journalist with the Arunachal Times.

This has created a “sense of insecurity among the people here,” she adds.

Villagers usually do not return to those “prohibited” areas for hunting and yak rearing, and they are not sure when they would be allowed again.

The border dispute also has wider strategic implications for Delhi, with a growing realisation that President Donald Trump’s focus on expanding economic engagement with China could limit Washington’s willingness to back India in any future confrontation with Beijing.

China may have little interest in a full-scale conflict with India but, analysts say, it could see advantages in allowing the dispute to continue.

As China’s economic and military power grows, it may calculate that a prolonged stalemate will strengthen its position in any future negotiations.

For India, the latest stand-offs are a reminder that improved diplomatic ties do not necessarily translate into lasting stability along the border.