Indiana, Ohio primaries draw midterm battle lines, reinforce Trump’s pull

Latest votes set up key Senate race, underscore Trump’s continued influence over Republican Party.

Primary elections in Indiana and Ohio have drawn the latest battle lines for the United States midterm elections in November, while underscoring Trump’s continued sway over Republican voters.

In Ohio, voters on Tuesday picked the candidates who will face off in the consequential election, with Democrats picking former Senator Sherrod Brown to take on Republican Jon Husted. Husted replaced Vice President JD Vance when he left his Senate seat for the White House.

The race is considered one of the most consequential, as Democrats face an uphill battle to retake control of the Senate, which currently has a 53-47 Republican majority. Brown has long styled himself as an economic populist, able to cut across party lines, while Republican groups have pledged to spend heavily to defend Husted.

Also in the “Buckeye State”, Trump ally Vivek Ramaswamy won the Republican gubernatorial nomination. Ramaswamy, who had a short tenure co-running Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) panel, will face off with Democrat Amy Acton, who led the state’s Department of Health during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In Indiana, meanwhile, Trump’s continued influence over the Republican Party was apparent, even as polls have seen his overall approval rating tank in recent weeks amid economic uncertainty and the US-Israeli war in Iran.

The US president had promised to target Republicans who pushed back on his calls for Indiana to redraw its congressional districts in advance of the midterms. Indiana was one of the few Republican-controlled state legislatures to reject the president’s pressure amid a wider flurry of state redistricting.

Five of the state-level candidates Trump targeted subsequently lost their primary elections on Tuesday. One candidate won, and one race remained too close to call.

State Senator Linda Rogers, one of the ousted Republicans, said Trump’s successful attempt to scuttle her race sent a clear message to others in the party considering opposing the president.

“If someone is going to ask you to take a tough vote, you may think twice about your conscience and what’s best for your community and instead what’s best for you and your career,” she said.

The primary comes shortly before US Representative Thomas Massie in Kentucky and US Senator Bill Cassidy in Louisiana, both Republicans, face punishing primary challenges. Trump is opposing both incumbents.

Massie has been one of the most outspoken critics of the administration, particularly when it comes to the US-Israeli war in Iran and the Department of Justice’s handling of documents related to disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein.

Cassidy had voted to impeach Trump in 2021 for his role in the January 6, 2021, riot at the US Capitol and remained a critic throughout Trump’s 2024 re-election campaign.

While Trump’s influence remained strong in the Indiana primary, it does not necessarily spell Republican success in the general elections.

Recent polls have shown tanking support for Trump among independents, who are unaffiliated with either party and often serve as key deciding factors in close races.

For example, a recent NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll found that 63 percent of US residents nationally place a “great deal or good amount of blame” on Trump for high petrol prices. That rate was the same – 63 percent – for independents.