Work on Donald Trump’s arch begins in Washington DC this month. Fashioned on Paris’s Arc de Triomphe, this 250-foot structure is ostensibly meant to mark the 250th year of American independence from England, but it is really a monument to Trump.
He fancies himself as the greatest American President in history and there are two reasons why. The first is political. Trump was an outsider who captured the Republican Party 10 years ago and has retained his grip on it. America’s two parties choose their candidates based on internal elections called primaries. Individuals publicly endorsed by Trump have a higher than 90% chance of defeating their Republican rivals. It is not their policy positions or their background that matter to Republican voters as much as their publicly expressed loyalty to Trump. This is what has given him ownership of that party.
This is a remarkable achievement because the Republicans fancy themselves as ideological and as conservative, neither of which Trump is. One could argue that under this ideological facade they were always bigots and Trump merely took away the facade. This is likely true but let us credit him with the achievement because it is real. The Republican Party today is the party of Trump.
Astride this organisation, Trump contested three elections and won two. The second victory of 2024 was truly astonishing given how thoroughly and justly he had been demonised after stoking violence at the end of his first term. This is the first of his achievements.
He does not offer it necessarily as a reason for his greatness but Trump has survived one assassination attempt and two other failed attacks. This also likely feeds into his sense of being a man of history.
The second reason he offers concerns governance. He points to what he sees as his success on immigration and on the economy. Indians are familiar with his actions on the former: jailing, shackling and deporting undocumented people, unleashing the entity known as ICE on American cities and attacking the institution of the H-1B visa.
On the economy his claim rests on a record high stock market, his tariff policy, the sustained investments by the largest companies in AI, and the low levels of unemployment. Here the record is less settled but will become clearer with time. He still has two years in office.
If we limit his achievements to these, it is possible that he comes out as one of the more successful figures of American politics. A maverick who dominated a major party like nobody before him and who was in office at the time of the most extraordinary technology revolution. In that sense, having a Trump monument in the capital like Washington, Jefferson and Lincoln have, may not be outlandish.
Unfortunately, none of the above will be what his legacy will be first associated with and he already knows that. Trump will be linked forever with his murder of Ayatollah Khamenei and the global chaos that has since followed. The war in Iran is a strategic failure of the sort that Afghanistan was not and even Vietnam was not. Limping home from both those defeats, America’s legions returned to a country whose power and influence was undiminished.
This is different. I am not referring to the damage done to the economy of the world by this war of stupidity, which is separate. The price of energy will likely eventually come down, if nothing else because of the fact that renewables are becoming as convenient as fossil fuels. China and its innovations will force the world away from petroleum products over this decade and the next. That is clear.
It is the American grand strategy that Trump has unwittingly taken his hammer to. America’s physical presence in the Gulf is one casualty. The visuals, published in America’s media, of its bases shattered by Iranian missiles and drones, revealed to the world what the Gulf nations already know. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE will not in future depend on a military power that cannot protect itself against Iran. Jordan is currently being battered.
The Gulf basing network allowed America to efficiently resupply its navy in a way it now cannot. It relies on an island thousands of kilometres away to fuel ships blockading Iran.
Allies in the Pacific have noted the failure in the Gulf also. America’s carriers meant to protect Taiwan, Japan, Philippines and Korea have been redeployed away from China’s geography.
Trump’s threats to withdraw forces from Europe have not yet materialised. But the mere expression of that intent has changed the relationship permanently. For the entire world and its nations, America’s word carries less weight now. A peace treaty signed by its President himself was violated almost immediately. He cannot concede defeat and he doesn’t know how to win. There are only bad and worse options before him.
None of this is visible in Trump’s language, as may be expected from a charlatan. “The war is very complete, pretty much,” he said on 10 March. It is not complete, and has become the thing Trump campaigned against in all three of his presidential runs: a forever war.
Vietnam, by the end, was so unpopular that Lyndon Johnson — despite his considerable achievements on civil rights — chose not to run again. The term-limited Trump doesn’t have that option, of course. He will pass into retirement with not this arch, but the effects of the Iran excursion, serving as a permanent monument to his presidency.
Aakar Patel is a senior journalist and columnist
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