Is time running out for Miles to stay as opposition leader?

Steven Miles is running out of opportunities to prove to an increasingly frustrated party room he is the man to lead Queensland Labor back to government, as internal rumblings persist and both primary and personal polling remains grim.

Core support for Labor fell one percentage point to 24 in the latest exclusive Resolve Political Monitor for this masthead – well below the mid-30s some colleagues believe is needed for the party to be competitive at the 2028 state election. The LNP’s primary support sits at 32 and One Nation 21.

Personal performance results will only exacerbate Labor fears.

Fewer than one in 10 Queensland voters say Miles is doing a “very good” job as opposition leader, while the net performance – total of good compared with poor – was negative 14 compared with Premier David Crisafulli’s plus 23.

This masthead has long reported of a Christmas deadline to settle on an electable leader after internal party analysis blamed Labor’s 2024 loss on Miles only having 10 months’ lead-in time before the poll.

But despite all the doom and gloom, reports of a pre-Christmas coup are exaggerated, according to senior party room sources speaking anonymously to share internal party matters.

With the weight of numbers behind his United Workers Union (UWU) as well as the dominance of the Left faction, Miles still has the numbers while Shannon Fentiman, also from the Left, and Right faction leader Cameron Dick are viewed as strong electable performers but each lack support to mount a genuine challenge, for now.

Depending on who you talk to in the opposition, complaints range from the passive attacks on the LNP, the lack of big-ticket announcements, poor party room consultation on policies, and an overdependence on chasing young voters on social media.

These rumblings reached “pissed off” levels after the August state Labor conference, when Miles’ headline announcement was fellow UWU comrade Meaghan Scanlon would recontest the seat of Gaven despite an unfavourable boundary redistribution.

This wasted a rare opportunity in opposition to gain traction with a headline policy as the halfway mark of the term approaches this month.

But the renouncement also “ruffled a lot of feathers”, according to one caucus MP, who fears valuable resources will be focused on keeping Scanlon in parliament rather than winning back seats or fighting to retain marginal electorates.

Some in the caucus say this is evidence the leadership team is sleepwalking to defeat in ’28, while others are less pessimistic and lean on a version of an adage – “two years is a long time in politics”.

“If we’re focused on trying to win in 2028, we need to be coming up with more strong policy to tackle what the issues are that people are raising with us,” a party room figure told this masthead.

Along with the Scanlon renouncement, Miles revealed at the state conference Labor would lift income eligibility thresholds to allow more people to access social housing if it won the next election.

This came after the opposition leader used his budget reply speech in June to unveil a proposal for an independent crime data bureau, offer new support for renters and a rego waiver for apprentices and their supervisors. The party has also held a series of community housing forums.

These are worthy policies but, as one MP conceded privately, are hardly “big-ticket items”. They are incremental and nuanced announcements more suited to a party in government than ideas that’ll move the dial for the opposition.

Miles’ supporters point to Crisafulli’s four years in opposition when pressed on the lack of cut through, arguing the LNP had slogans rather than detailed policy when adopting the small target strategy at the 2024 election.

This is true, but the Crisafulli opposition had a clear and narrow focus on issues early in the term, starting with health then crime and housing, which was effective in prosecuting the Labor government’s handling of prominent issues. It was more about shattering public confidence in Labor than presenting grand ideas. And it worked.

Miles is affable and well-liked internally across the factional divide, and support remains from his dominant union and faction. But there is uneasiness about the party’s inability to make inroads under his leadership.

To galvanise the opposition and quash internal rumblings being splashed in the media, the opposition leader needs to find traction with an increasingly disengaged supporter base. But as the Christmas deadline approaches, the opportunities are diminishing.