Are the Chiefs weak enough to lose this game?
Andy Reid and the Chiefs are coming off an embarrassing finish against the Broncos. The week before, they were embarrassed by the Seahawks in a primetime spot.
They come into Sunday’s game at Arrowhead as 9.5-point favorites, while the Jets lost at home as favorites to a downright bad Raiders squad.
How you view this game relies entirely on the Jets offense.
All things aside, Geno Smith has been very efficient at quarterback this year, currently on pace to break a couple of Jets single-season passing records, including Joe Namath’s total yardage in 1967 and Chad Pennington’s passer rating and completion percentage marks in 2002. But, he’s now missing his top receiver Garrett Wilson so he will have to survive without him, though he does have Breece Hall back in the fold.
The advanced stats like DVOA love the way the Chiefs execute plays at a high level, while actually viewing Gang Green’s offense favorably.
Kansas City is rated No. 8 in DVOA while the Jets are 23, though the Chiefs’ defense is rated No. 13 while the Jets’ offense checks in at No. 16.
If you think the Jets have a shot, it has to rely entirely on the offense to put up points. Their defense has been downright putrid and it really brings on questions of how Aaron Glenn still has a job.
My model reflects the Jets as just five-point underdogs and is projecting a lower-scoring game compared to the market, which has an implied total of 48 points.
Betting on the NFL?
For that reason, I’ll target the Jets +9.5 and bet on the under 48 total points in a same-game parlay that pays out at roughly +240.
PREDICTION: Jets +9.5 + Under 48 total points (+240, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: nypost.com
