The Liberty open the second half of the WNBA schedule with three road games, beginning with a matchup in Los Angeles against the Sparks Tuesday night.
The Liberty went 4-8 in their last 12 games before the All-Star Break, which included a buzzer-beater loss to the Sparks in June. While they closed out the first half with two important wins, the Liberty fell from second in the league in overall record in mid-June to seventh entering Tuesday’s games.
Oddsmakers expect the Liberty to win Tuesday with the spread sitting at Liberty -4.5 and the Over/Under settled at 183.5.
Liberty vs. Sparks prediction, best bets
The Liberty and Sparks each have two major injury question marks entering tonight’s game. Kelsey Plum has been out for a month after suffering an injury the last time these two teams played. Satou Sabally has also been out with a concussion since late June.
Breanna Stewart will be on the court after playing the most minutes in the WNBA All-Star Game, which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. Stewart has played in all but one game for the Liberty this season, ranks sixth in total minutes and 10th in usage percentage.
With Sabally and Sabrina Ionescu missing time this season, the scoring burden has fallen on Stewart’s shoulders many nights and she has been living in the lane more than ever. Stewart is averaging career highs in points in the paint (11.2) and free throw attempts (7.3).
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The Sparks have been flat out bad on defense this season. They give up 42.5 points in the paint and allow teams to take 27.2 3-point attempts per game, both rank second-worst in the W.
Stewart put up 18 points the last time these two teams played, but the Sparks left her open at the 3-point line a ton. It paid off in that game as she went 0-for-4, but she was on a hot streak from deep going into the break and hit 41 percent of her 3s over the next nine games.
She should have the advantage inside and if she’s left open beyond the arc again, I’m willing to bet she’ll hit her shots.
Stewart’s scoring prop is sitting at 21.5, which is right around her season’s average and a number she has topped in five of her past 10 games. I like the Over on her points prop tonight in LA.
The Pick: Breanna Stewart Over 21.5 Points (-120, bet365)
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
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