Lose, draw or win: What the Socceroos need to advance at the World Cup

San Francisco: The Socceroos have returned to their training base in Oakland after a disappointing 2-0 loss to the United States, but with their World Cup fate still very much in their own hands.

With Paraguay beating Turkey, Australia will enter the final group game at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara knowing what they need to do to make it through to the knockout stages. The final round matches for Group D feature the US playing Turkey at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, kicking off at midday on Friday (AEST), at the same time the Socceroos play Paraguay.

This is what each potential result would mean for the Socceroos’ chances of progressing to the round of 32.

Socceroos win

If Australia beat Paraguay, the Socceroos would finish on six points in Group D and in second spot. The US, who are already on six points, have already topped the group regardless of whether they lose to Turkey in the final group match. That is because, for the first time at a World Cup, FIFA is using head-to-head records instead of goal difference as the primary tiebreaker for teams level on points. The US’s win over the Socceroos in Seattle means Australia can finish no higher than second.

What next: A second-place finish would have Australia play their round of 32 match in Dallas on July 4 (AEST) against the runner-up of Group G – likely to be either Egypt, Iran or New Zealand. The Socceroos have never played Egypt in a major tournament, and Australia’s last match against Iran was the heartbreaking defeat in the World Cup qualifier at the Melbourne Cricket Ground in 1997.

Socceroos draw

Australia only needs a point to secure the second spot. Paraguay, like Australia, currently have three points – so both sides would finish equal on four points. The draw also would mean the head-to-head tiebreaker couldn’t split the sides, so it would go back to goal difference – and with Australia having a superior tally, the Socceroos would finish second.

What next: The same scenario as if we win – the round of 32 game in Dallas against Group G’s second-place getter.

Socceroos lose

Even with a loss, Australia cannot finish lower than third in Group D. If Turkey manages to win against the US and picks up three points, they would still sit below the Socceroos based on the head-to-head record after Australia’s 2-0 win in Vancouver in the opening round.

Australia’s progression would then depend on a series of results in multiple games across the other 11 groups. The tournament’s 48-team expansion means the eight best-performing third-placed sides out of the 12 groups progress to the round of 32. Would the Socceroos’ three points – after a win and two losses – be enough to get through? Quite possibly.

After the opening round of the tournament, leading analytics company Opta’s supercomputer ran 100,000 simulations of the remaining group stage fixtures and found that 66.7 per cent of the time, three points were enough for a team to go through.

How bad Australia’s defeat was to Paraguay would have an impact. The Socceroos currently have a goal difference of zero – so a loss would push that into the negative. If they were defeated by one goal, Opta says the likelihood of Australia progressing would actually be 84.2 per cent. However, if they lose by two, it drops to 64.3 per cent; at three goals, it becomes 41.8 per cent, and so on.

What next: If they scrape through in third, their opponent and venue for their round of 32 match are not as clear. As things currently stand, the most likely scenario is a trip to Boston, where they would play Germany, who have already clinched top place in Group E, on June 30. The other possibilities include a trip to New York (well, MetLife Stadium in New Jersey) to play the winner of Group I – most likely France – on July 1, or head to Kansas City on July 4 to play the winner of Group K. That group is likely to be topped by either Portugal or Colombia.

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